FXUS63 KIND 041901

AFDIND



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

301 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Quiet pattern continues through Wednesday amid light winds and 

  near normal temperatures, patchy fog tonight in rural areas



- Rain and storm chances return Wednesday night and persist 

  through early next week, greatest chances Thursday and Friday



- Localized flooding will be possible at times from repeated rounds 

  of convection



- The setup this weekend into early next week could support a few 

  strong to severe storms, confidence on exact details remains low



&&



.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...

Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



Today through Wednesday...



Expect mostly quiet weather conditions with surface high pressure 

pushing east across the region. Diurnal cumulus has developed across 

much of central Indiana as convective temperatures have been 

reached. The greatest coverage is across western portions of central 

Indiana where there is slightly deeper moisture present. Look for 

the diurnal cumulus to dissipate during the evening hours. Mostly 

clear skies and very light winds could promote additional patchy fog 

development late tonight. Drying soils the past few afternoons will 

keep coverage more limited, but cannot rule out fog in rural areas 

or near rivers. Any fog that develops will mix out in typical 

diurnal fashion Wednesday morning. 



Expect surface high pressure to continue shifting east on Wednesday 

while a shortwave aloft and associated weak surface low approach 

very late in the day. Residual subsidence induced dry air will keep 

weather conditions dry through the day, but a stray light shower 

appears possible near far northwestern counties during the evening. 

Expect temperatures to gradually warm thanks to modest warm air 

advection. Highs are generally going to be near normal. 



Wednesday night through early next week...



Guidance depicts a longwave trough across the north-central CONUS 

during the remainder of the forecast period with multiple embedded 

shortwaves traversing the region. These impulses will promote 

additional convective chances at times as deeper moisture surges 

back into central Indiana. The greatest precipitation chances are on 

Thursday and Friday when the strongest forcing overlaps with the 

deeper moisture surging northward. A frontal boundary associated 

with a weak disturbance will likely stall near the region by 

Thursday. Additional shortwaves tracking along the boundary supports 

daily precipitation chances through early next week.



Some guidance suggest low amplitude upper ridging builds in Sunday 

into Monday with an EML advecting towards the region. This leads to 

lower confidence in convective coverage and precipitation chances 

both days. Varying model solutions also results in higher 

uncertainty regarding specific details on timing or evolution of 

each subsequent shortwave pushing into central Indiana. 



In general, models depict strong destabilization most days and 

enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing waves. This 

could potentially support isolated severe thunderstorms somewhere 

near the region, but expect confidence to remain low until models 

become better aligned. Some guidance is already hinting at MCSs or 

storm clusters developing upstream and potentially propagating 

towards central Indiana at times this weekend into early next week. 

Localized flooding from repeated rounds of convection and isolated 

damaging wind gusts would be the primary threats if this scenario 

occurs.



&&



.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...

Issued at 127 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



Impacts:



- Patchy fog possible overnight.



Discussion: 



VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.



Surface high pressure currently resides over Indiana, bringing quiet 

weather to the region. Expect light and variable winds with diurnal 

cumulus dissipating around sunset. Patchy fog is possible overnight, 

mainly along rivers and in rural areas. Fog may briefly reduce 

visibility at the typically fog-prone terminals.



Any fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise Wednesday with diurnal 

cumulus returning later in the morning. Winds should become 

southwesterly, remaining under 10kt, as a cold front approaches from 

the west.





&&



.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



AVIATION...Eckhoff

DISCUSSION...Melo