FXUS63 KILX 242330

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...





- Light, spotty showers will push across the region during this

  weekend, with a greater emphasis near and south of I-70, where

  there is currently a low (10-20%) chance of exceeding a quarter

  inch of rainfall mainly late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.



- There remains an unusual amount of forecast uncertainty heading

  into the middle of next week with the next storm system.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



The mid afternoon surface map shows 1026-1027 mb high pressure

over eastern WI and ridging southward across central/eastern IL 

and into western KY/TN. A 1011 mb low pressure was over the nw

part of the Texas panhandle with a warm front extending ne into 

south central KS. Aloft a 570 dm 500 mb low was along the CO/NM

border with weak upper level ridging ahead of this low over the

Eastern Plains. High/cirrus clouds have been spreading eastward

across central/se IL early this afternoon with thicker mid level

clouds over MO and far sw IL including St Louis metro and moving 

toward Quincy and Mt Vernon. Nearby high pressure keeping winds

light to calm with temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s, mildest

lower 60s from Macomb to Springfield and Taylorville sw and in 

southeast IL from I-70 south.  



High pressure strengthens to 1030-1031 mb as it drifts eastward 

into the eastern Great Lakes and mid Atlantic States by Sat 

morning as low pressure moves eastward into south central 

Oklahoma. Mid level clouds to spread eastward across central/se IL

during tonight, while chances of light rain showers to stay sw of

CWA through sunrise Sat. Lows overnight range from upper 30s 

northeast CWA (coolest around Danville and ne) and mid 40s from 

Springfield to Lawrenceville sw with upper 40s closer to the MS 

river valley in west central and sw IL. Appears patchy frost 

overnight be more ne of CWA as clouds are forecast to move in 

quicker and already have high clouds over much of the area. 



Models shows upper level low moving over the southern Plains Sat

while isolated light showers to spread into CWA during the day 

Sat and Sat night with cloudy skies and showers chances to be 

more focused over sw CWA. Highs Sat 55-60F over central IL 

(coolest over Knox, Stark and Marshall counties) and lower 60s in 

southeast IL. Better chance of showers to push into southern/sw 

CWA later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as cutoff low moves to

between Memphis and Paducah late Sunday night. Rainfall amounts 

of a tenth to quarter inch possible later Sunday and Sunday night 

south of I-70 with 10-20% chance being above quarter inch over far

southern CWA. Highs Sunday mostly in the lower 60s with a fair 

amount of cloud cover south of I-74. Have 20-30% chance of showers

lingering in southeast IL Mon morning, otherwise much of area 

appears quiet/dry on Monday and Mon evening. Highs Mon around 

60F. 



A strong northern stream wx system off the Pacific Northwest to

develop a cutoff low in the nations mid section by sunset Tue and

dig into the Southeast States/TN river valley on Wed. Models still

differ with speed and path of this stronger storm system, but

trends have been with heavier qpf passing further southeast and se

of central IL. We have 30-40% chance of showers Tue and Tue night

and 20-30% pops Wed (highest in eastern IL Wed morning) before

diminishing from the west during Wed night. Highs in the mid to

upper 50s Tue through Friday overall. Cooler lows in the upper 30s

Wed night and mid to upper 30s Thu night and Fri night (Halloween

night).



07



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)

Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Cigs will

start high and then slowly fall into mid cloud levels late

tonight, then drop to 8kft or below during the morning hours or

later...especially at CMI. Slight chance of showers is possible

tomorrow, but chances look small enough that will leave out VCSH

or PROB30 group for now. Light and variable winds this evening,

followed by east-southeast winds late tonight through tomorrow.

Speeds will be 10kts or less...even during the day tomorrow.



Auten



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$