FXUS63 KILX 241703

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...





- Light, spotty showers will push across the region during this

  weekend, with a greater emphasis near and south of I-70, where

  there is currently a low (20-30%) chance of exceeding 0.2 inches 

  of rainfall.



- There remains an unusual amount of forecast uncertainty heading

  into the middle of next week with the next storm system.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Allowed the freeze warning (and frost advisory for Scott, Morgan,

Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties) end at 9 am cdt as

temperatures rose into the upper 30s/lower 40s. A widespread

freeze occurred over much of CWA at sunrise with temps of 28-32F

common. Paris and Lacon airports were the cold spots at 26F with

NWS on east side of Lincoln and Macomb airport reaching 27F.

Decatur and Pontiac airports were 28F. Champaign, Danville, 

Galesburg and Jacksonville airports reached 29F. So a few

locations had a hard freeze (28F or colder).  



The late morning surface map shows 1027 mb high pressure over

central IL, ridging from the upper MS river valley SSE into

western KY/TN. Light to calm winds late this morning, temps had 

quickly rose into the upper 40s to mid 50s (Lacon where dense 

freezing fog early this morning was cool spot at 44F). Some thin

cirrus clouds have moved into parts of central IL while thicker

mid/high clouds were sw over MO and south central/sw Iowa. 



Latest CAMS show high pressure ridge drifting slowly east of IL by

sunset while surface 1013 mb low pressure stays near northern

Texas Panhandle into this evening. Its showers should stay sw of

CWA through this evening as high/cirrus clouds increase this

afternoon with mid level clouds increase from sw to ne during

tonight. Highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s look on track with

mildest readings (lower 60s) from Macomb to Lincoln to Terre 

Haute sw. Winds to remain light rest of today with high pressure

nearby. Overall a pretty nice fall day over central/se IL with

more trees changing colors due to cool weather since Tuesday.



07



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Surface high pressure moves east into the Great Lakes today, 

followed by two mid-level shortwave troughs entering the central 

US. Central Illinois will see filtered sunshine and afternoon 

temperatures near 60 degrees Fahrenheit, close to seasonal norms.



Tonight, clouds will thicken as a sub-tropical jet stream, 

rounding the base of the southern shortwave, brings upper-level 

moisture. Unfortunately, the northern shortwave, as it digs across

the Upper-Mississippi Valley, will undercut the low-level 

moisture flux advecting up from the Gulf.



As a result, minimal to no rain is expected this weekend, with 

the main storm track staying to our south. We anticipate only 

spotty warm-advection type showers. The exception might be Sunday,

particularly near and south of I-70, where a couple of transient 

low-level FGEN bands could support a soaking rain. Hi-res guidance

does not yet resolve this period, but the latest NBM 

probabilities show a low (20-30%) chance of exceeding 0.2" of 

rain in those areas on Sunday.



From Monday onward, the synoptic pattern will become increasingly

complex. The likelihood of rain mid-next week for areas that miss

it this weekend depends on the evolution of an upper-level trough

moving into the Pacific Northwest by Monday. Two potential 

weather solutions are being considered. Solution A predicts a 

deepening cut-off low tracking into the Southern Plains and Lower-

Mississippi Valley, leading to rain chances for our area mid- 

week. Solution B suggests a more progressive shortwave trough will

position a deepening cut-off low over the Mid-Atlantic region, 

resulting in a drier and milder mid-week forecast for our area. At

this point, ensemble guidance seems to cluster more toward 

Solution A. For now, this is good news as we look to take another 

bite out of the current drought conditions.



MJA



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



VFR conditions expected through Saturday morning, with high ceilings

developing and gradually lowering to about 7000 ft by late

Saturday morning. Light east winds trend more southeast and 

increase, though remaining below 10 knots. 



Geelhart



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$