FXUS63 KILX 241035 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 535 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning remains in effect this morning for temperatures below 32 degrees. Sensitive vegetation may become damaged or killed. - Light, spotty showers will push across the region this weekend, with a greater emphasis near and south of Interstate 70, where there is currently a low (20-30%) chance of exceeding 0.2" of rainfall. - There remains an unusual amount of forecast uncertainty heading into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Surface high pressure moves east into the Great Lakes today, followed by two mid-level shortwave troughs entering the central US. Central Illinois will see filtered sunshine and afternoon temperatures near 60 degrees Fahrenheit, close to seasonal norms. Tonight, clouds will thicken as a sub-tropical jet stream, rounding the base of the southern shortwave, brings upper-level moisture. Unfortunately, the northern shortwave, as it digs across the Upper-Mississippi Valley, will undercut the low-level moisture flux advecting up from the Gulf. As a result, minimal to no rain is expected this weekend, with the main storm track staying to our south. We anticipate only spotty warm-advection type showers. The exception might be Sunday, particularly near and south of I-70, where a couple of transient low-level FGEN bands could support a soaking rain. Hi-res guidance does not yet resolve this period, but the latest NBM probabilities show a low (20-30%) chance of exceeding 0.2" of rain in those areas on Sunday. From Monday onward, the synoptic pattern will become increasingly complex. The likelihood of rain mid-next week for areas that miss it this weekend depends on the evolution of an upper-level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest by Monday. Two potential weather solutions are being considered. Solution A predicts a deepening cut-off low tracking into the Southern Plains and Lower- Mississippi Valley, leading to rain chances for our area mid- week. Solution B suggests a more progressive shortwave trough will position a deepening cut-off low over the Mid-Atlantic region, resulting in a drier and milder mid-week forecast for our area. At this point, ensemble guidance seems to cluster more toward Solution A. For now, this is good news as we look to take another bite out of the current drought conditions. MJA && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 529 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 High pressure will continue building across the region today, promoting light and variable winds, and mostly clear skies. Clouds will gradually increase and lower this evening ahead of a frontal system lifting across the Southern Plains, but VFR conditions will persist through the end of this TAF period. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>048-051>057-061>063-066>068. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ049-050- 071>073. && $$