FXUS63 KILX 240847

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

347 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A Freeze Warning remains in effect this morning for temperatures

  below 32 degrees. Sensitive vegetation may become damaged or

  killed.



- Light, spotty showers will push across the region this weekend,

  with a greater emphasis near and south of Interstate 70, where 

  there is currently a low (20-30%) chance of exceeding 0.2" of 

  rainfall.



- There remains an unusual amount of forecast uncertainty heading

  into the middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Surface high pressure moves east into the Great Lakes today, 

followed by two mid-level shortwave troughs entering the central 

US. Central Illinois will see filtered sunshine and afternoon 

temperatures near 60 degrees Fahrenheit, close to seasonal norms.



Tonight, clouds will thicken as a sub-tropical jet stream, 

rounding the base of the southern shortwave, brings upper-level 

moisture. Unfortunately, the northern shortwave, as it digs across

the Upper-Mississippi Valley, will undercut the low-level 

moisture flux advecting up from the Gulf.



As a result, minimal to no rain is expected this weekend, with 

the main storm track staying to our south. We anticipate only 

spotty warm-advection type showers. The exception might be Sunday,

particularly near and south of I-70, where a couple of transient 

low-level FGEN bands could support a soaking rain. Hi-res guidance

does not yet resolve this period, but the latest NBM 

probabilities show a low (20-30%) chance of exceeding 0.2" of 

rain in those areas on Sunday.



From Monday onward, the synoptic pattern will become increasingly

complex. The likelihood of rain mid-next week for areas that miss

it this weekend depends on the evolution of an upper-level trough

moving into the Pacific Northwest by Monday. Two potential 

weather solutions are being considered. Solution A predicts a 

deepening cut-off low tracking into the Southern Plains and Lower-

Mississippi Valley, leading to rain chances for our area mid- 

week. Solution B suggests a more progressive shortwave trough will

position a deepening cut-off low over the Mid-Atlantic region, 

resulting in a drier and milder mid-week forecast for our area. At

this point, ensemble guidance seems to cluster more toward 

Solution A. For now, this is good news as we look to take another 

bite out of the current drought conditions.



MJA



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



High pressure will promote light winds and clear skies

initially, but a weather system drifting closer to the area will 

begin to spread high and mid clouds over the area later in the 

period. Nevertheless, VFR conditions will prevail for the 

upcoming 24 hours.



37



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ027>031-

036>038-040>048-051>057-061>063-066>068.



Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ049-050-

071>073.



&&



$$