FXUS63 KILX 240519 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The first widespread freeze of the season is expected overnight and early Fri morning over much of central and southeast IL as low temperatures drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s. NBM has a 60-80% chance of temperatures at or below freezing from Macomb to Springfield to Effingham northeast by dawn Friday. A freeze warning is posted from 1 to 9 am Friday, except a frost advisory for Scott, Morgan, Clay, Richland and Lawrence counties. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Upgraded Sangamon, Christian, Shelby, Effingham and Jasper counties from a frost advisory to a freeze warning overnight until 9 am Friday. Otherwise rest of frost/freeze headlines continue rest of CWA. Lows tonight in the upper 20s and lower 30s expected over much of central and southeast IL. A few areas already had a freeze early this morning but expect a more widespread freeze overnight as high pressure ridge over MO and western parts of MN/IA drifts slowly eastward into IL overnight and early Fri morning. WNW to NW winds to become light to calm during tonight as high pressure settles in with temps cooling toward dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s. Cirrus clouds arriving into sw parts of CWA late tonight should keep those areas a degree or two above freezing but will be close. If these high clouds do not move in quick enough, may get colder and will need to watch far southern and sw CWA for possible freezing warning too. High pressure ridge slips east of IL during Fri afternoon while low pressure moves into the Texas panhandle. This associated with a 569 dm 500 mb low near the UT/AZ border that moves into central NM Fri evening. This will increase mid/high clouds into central and sw IL during Friday with the mid level clouds more prevalent sw CWA Fri afternoon. Showers should stay west and sw of CWA Friday and much of CWA likely stays dry Fri night with 15-20% chance of showers by overnight Fri night from Macomb to Jacksonville west. Highs Fri in the lower 60s, with upper 50s ne of I-74. Lows Fri night 40-45F sw of I-74 and upper 30s from Lacon to Bloomington to Terre Haute ne with some frost possible later Fri night around Vermilion county/Danville area where lows closer to mid 30s where less cloud cover expected. Models continue further sw trends of southern stream storm system moving into the Southern Plains during this weekend and keeping brunt of its heavier showers sw of CWA. We have 20-30% chance of showers Sat afternoon and Sat night and qpf amounts very light (less than a tenth inch) if they occur. Highs Sat in the upper 50s central IL and around 60F in southeast IL. Lows Sat night in the mid to upper 40s, with lower 40s possible over parts of Edgar and Vermilion counties. The cutoff low is opening up as it tracks into the mid/southern MS river valley later Sunday and Sunday night, with pops 20-40% Sunday (mainly Sunday afternoon and highest southern CWA) and 30-50% pops Sunday night. Instability is weak and no thunder mentioned over CWA this forecast package. In a lull on Monday with weakening trof pushing over the Southeast STates and next northern stream short wave trof moving into the northern Rockies and Dakotas. We have just slight chance of light showers Monday but much of area should be dry. The stronger northern stream short wave digs into the Midwest Monday night and forms a large cutoff mid/upper level low pivoting south of IL Tue night and Wed. Still have large disagreements between models with evolution of this stronger storm system and stayed close to NBM pops which are in chance category from Mon night into Wed. Temps to trend cooler for Wed/Thu with deep upper level trof over theEastern US. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 High pressure will promote light winds and clear skies initially, but a weather system drifting closer to the area will begin to spread high and mid clouds over the area later in the period. Nevertheless, VFR conditions will prevail for the upcoming 24 hours. 37 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>048-051>057-061>063-066>068. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ049-050- 071>073. && $$