FXUS63 KILX 201022

AFDILX



Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

522 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend,

  with daily high temperatures reaching the 70s. There is a 40-70%

  chance that temperatures will reach or exceed 80 degrees on 

  Sunday, especially for areas south of Interstate 72.



- A cold front on Sunday brings a low chance (20-30% near I-70) 

  for thunderstorms; if storms develop, a few could become strong 

  to severe.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



Happy first day of astronomical spring! We made it! Today will be 

very nice, along with the next several days. The forecast is 

practically dry except for Sunday night into Monday where there is a 

20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes 

through. If any of these storms develop, they could be strong to 

severe. Machine learning models are highlighting southern and 

southeastern IL for the risk for severe weather Sunday. There is 

strong capping in place which would limit development, despite the 

strong deep layer shear and modest instability in place. We will 

continue to monitor trends over the next day to see how things will 

play out better. 



The heat has been turned on and will be left on through the weekend. 

Highs today through Sunday will be knocking on the door to 80 

degrees. Some lucky locations will even break into the 80s, 

especially areas south of I-72. The warmest lows are expected on 

Saturday night which will only get down into the upper 50s to near 

60. The LREF is showing a 40-70% chance of lows exceeding 60 degrees 

Saturday night/Sunday morning west of I-57. Similarly, the best 

chance to break 80 is on Sunday with a 40-70% chance south of I-72. 



Then the aforementioned cold front will move through the forecast

area Sunday, bringing not only the risk for some strong storms 

but also a nearly 30 degree temperature change. Highs on Monday 

will only top out in the mid 50s. These cooler daytime 

temperatures don't last long as we should be back up in the upper 

60s to low 70s by Thursday. Then another cold front will move 

through bringing 20-30 POPs for precipitation and cooler (upper 

40s/near 50s) temperatures for the end of the week. 



Copple



&&



.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)

Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



VFR conditions are expected through the 12z TAF period today. The

forecast is focused on the shifting winds as a front moves through

today. Southwesterly winds will become east-northeasterly by the

end of the period. Winds will be around 10-15 knots throughout 

the daytime hours then will relax to less than 10 knots as the 

sunsets this evening (~00z). 



Copple



&&



.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$