FXUS63 KICT 250749

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

249 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and isolated thunderstorms through Sunday morning, 

  with returning chances Monday and Tuesday.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures over the next seven

  days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



Currently, the upper-level trough remains centered over the Southern 

Rockies with the corresponding surface low situated over the western 

Southern Plains. The surface boundary extends across the Red River 

Valley. The rain shield so far tonight has remained primarily to our 

south, but as the low and associated warm front begins to lift 

north, rain will begin to overspread the area between 10-12Z. 

Anomalously high PWATs between 1-1.25 inch across the forecast area 

will allow for some locations to see locally heavy rainfall with 

this activity.



Through the rest of today, the upper-level trough and surface low 

will continue to scoot eastward resulting in the vort max being 

situated overhead through the evening hours. This will lead to a 

deformation band of persistent light to moderate rain showers across 

much of the region through 00Z. Due to the location of the surface 

low along the OK/TX border, instability across the forecast area 

today will be negligible, resulting in minimal thunder activity. By 

Sunday, the system will begin to quickly lift off to the northeast 

bringing our rain chances to an end from west to east. 



Another trough will eject into the Northern Plains on Sunday 

night/Monday morning. This will sweep a cold front across the state 

on Monday bringing additional rain and isolated thunderstorm chances 

to the area throughout the day. Instability with this system looks 

minimal, so currently thinking most activity will remain showery. As 

a lobe of the upper-level trough separates from the main feature, it 

will dive across the Mississippi Valley through mid week. Because of 

this lingering piece of energy, a few spotty showers will impact 

across eastern Kansas into Wednesday. Behind this system, drier and 

mild weather is forecast. 



Temperatures throughout the upcoming week will remain seasonably 

cool with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 50s to lower 60s. 

Overnight lows through Monday night will fall into the 40s to lower 

50s. With the passage of the frontal boundary on Monday, overnight 

lows for Tuesday night through the end of the week will dip into 30s 

and lower 40s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



An impactful 24 hours is expected for aviation interests.



Early this morning, cig cats are bouncing between LIFR and VFR,

while vis cats are more steady around IFR or MVFR. Mist and

drizzle should gradually transition to light rain later this

morning, then pockets of moderate rainfall are possible this

afternoon before showers dissipate later this evening or

tonight. Visibilities and ceilings are expected to remain quite

steady over the next 24 hours. Vis should remain at MVFR with

brief periods of IFR possible in heavier drizzle or rainfall.

Cigs should remain around IFR with periods of lower or higher

ceilings possible. That being said, a gradual improvement in

ceilings is possible towards the end of the TAF period. While

thunder isn't necessarily anticipated, a few lightning strikes

are possible across far southern or southeast Kansas.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AMD

AVIATION...JC