FXUS63 KICT 250607

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

107 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



...Updated Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and thunderstorms through Sunday morning, with

  returning chances Monday and Tuesday.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures over the next seven

  days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict an upper 

low just east of the Four Corners with a jet max situated over the 

Rio Grande Valley. A surface low ahead of this upper feature has led 

to showers and thunderstorms across Texas and Oklahoma while WAA 

across a mid-level baroclinic zone drove activity across Kansas 

earlier today.



Showers and storms are expected to resume across the forecast area 

this evening as the surface low and associated warm front lifts into 

the region. As with activity last night and this morning, limited 

instability will preclude opportunities for severe weather, though 

CAPE up to 500 J/kg will continue to allow for heavy rainfall 

heading into Saturday. Models then highlight the upper low situating 

itself over the Texas Panhandle with a secondary vort max tracking 

northward through Oklahoma and into southern Kansas by Saturday 

afternoon. This upper forcing will continue to promote rain 

throughout the day before slowly coming to an end from west to east 

by Sunday morning. CAM ensembles continue to highlight areas in 

south and southeast Kansas to have the best chances (60-80%) for 

rainfall accumulations greater than 1 inch during this time period 

and in addition to rainfall from earlier today. As such, localized 

flooding concerns appear possible in areas primarily along/south of 

US-400.



After a brief break from rain Sunday afternoon and evening, another 

shortwave is progged to eject out of the Northern Rockies and into 

the Northern/Central Plains late Sunday night into Monday. Showers 

and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the associated cold 

front, with mid/long-range models carrying chances (20-40%) for 

isolated to scattered coverage across the forecast area. Differences 

in model solutions arise here, with the GFS and Euro keeping the 

system more progressive and carrying it out of the region by Monday 

night. The Canadian slowly tracks it to the southeast before exiting 

the region late Tuesday, which could result in another solid rain 

event for the area. Following the departure of this second system, 

however, model consensus keeps the forecast area dry to close out 

the week as northwest flow aloft resumes. 



Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures continue to be expected over 

the next seven days with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. 

Overnight temperatures will only drop to the upper 40s and low 50s 

through Sunday night before falling into the upper 30s and 40s to 

begin the work week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



An impactful 24 hours is expected for aviation interests.



Early this morning, cig cats are bouncing between LIFR and VFR,

while vis cats are more steady around IFR or MVFR. Mist and

drizzle should gradually transition to light rain later this

morning, then pockets of moderate rainfall are possible this

afternoon before showers dissipate later this evening or

tonight. Visibilities and ceilings are expected to remain quite

steady over the next 24 hours. Vis should remain at MVFR with

brief periods of IFR possible in heavier drizzle or rainfall.

Cigs should remain around IFR with periods of lower or higher

ceilings possible. That being said, a gradual improvement in

ceilings is possible towards the end of the TAF period. While

thunder isn't necessarily anticipated, a few lightning strikes

are possible across far southern orsoutheast Kansas.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JWK

AVIATION...JC