FXUS63 KICT 242001 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms through Sunday morning, with returning chances Monday and Tuesday. - Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures over the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict an upper low just east of the Four Corners with a jet max situated over the Rio Grande Valley. A surface low ahead of this upper feature has led to showers and thunderstorms across Texas and Oklahoma while WAA across a mid-level baroclinic zone drove activity across Kansas earlier today. Showers and storms are expected to resume across the forecast area this evening as the surface low and associated warm front lifts into the region. As with activity last night and this morning, limited instability will preclude opportunities for severe weather, though CAPE up to 500 J/kg will continue to allow for heavy rainfall heading into Saturday. Models then highlight the upper low situating itself over the Texas Panhandle with a secondary vort max tracking northward through Oklahoma and into southern Kansas by Saturday afternoon. This upper forcing will continue to promote rain throughout the day before slowly coming to an end from west to east by Sunday morning. CAM ensembles continue to highlight areas in south and southeast Kansas to have the best chances (60-80%) for rainfall accumulations greater than 1 inch during this time period and in addition to rainfall from earlier today. As such, localized flooding concerns appear possible in areas primarily along/south of US-400. After a brief break from rain Sunday afternoon and evening, another shortwave is progged to eject out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern/Central Plains late Sunday night into Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the associated cold front, with mid/long-range models carrying chances (20-40%) for isolated to scattered coverage across the forecast area. Differences in model solutions arise here, with the GFS and Euro keeping the system more progressive and carrying it out of the region by Monday night. The Canadian slowly tracks it to the southeast before exiting the region late Tuesday, which could result in another solid rain event for the area. Following the departure of this second system, however, model consensus keeps the forecast area dry to close out the week as northwest flow aloft resumes. Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures continue to be expected over the next seven days with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Overnight temperatures will only drop to the upper 40s and low 50s through Sunday night before falling into the upper 30s and 40s to begin the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A brief lull in shower and storm activity this afternoon is expected to be followed by another round of more widespread activity this evening and tonight as a storm system gradually emerges from the Rockies. Showers and storms will likely linger through much if not all of the day on Saturday. Southeast winds will back to an east or northeast winds as low pressure deepens over Oklahoma through the period. Moist easterly upslope flow will allow widespread low cigs to impact the area with IFR/LIFR at times through the period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM