FXUS63 KICT 241139

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

639 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight

  with chances lasting through Sunday morning. Rain totals in

  excess of one inch remain likely, especially in south central

  and southeast Kansas.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures over the next seven

  days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



The 00Z upper air sounding analysis depicts a trough digging over 

the Central Rockies with a corresponding surface low situated over 

the Southern Rockies and a nearly stationary boundary extending 

across the Panhandles into Oklahoma. Analysis at 850mb and water 

vapor imagery shows abundant moisture surging northward with the 

nose of moisture just entering southern Kansas. As such, over the 

past few hours, we have seen a dramatic uptick in showers and  

thunderstorms developing over the forecast area. Currently, an 

area of around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is centered over southern Kansas.

Models indicate a slight increase in instability during the 

early morning hours, with pockets of up to 1500 J/kg generally 

before 12Z. During this time we will see our best chances for 

more widespread thunderstorms with a few of these storms capable

of producing heavy rainfall and small hail. Some of these 

storms will be effective rain-makers given the exceptional low- 

level moisture which could lead to ponding of water in low-lying

areas, however widespread flooding will not be a concern.



Through the rest of today, the surface low will drift eastward over 

the Panhandles with the surface boundary remaining south of the 

forecast area. Because of this, the better instability will also be 

confined to the Southern Plains with only a general thunderstorm 

threat extending over Kansas. Model guidance suggests MUCAPE values 

of up to 500 J/kg will be possible primarily over central Kansas 

through the afternoon and evening hours. Being situated north of the 

frontal boundary with widespread cloud cover and shower activity, 

afternoon highs will remain around 60 degrees areawide. The 

surface low will continue to slowly slide southeast in 

conjunction with the digging upper-level trough on Saturday. The

vort max will be situated overhead through the evening hours, 

leading to continued scattered showers across the region for 

much of the day. Because of the slight southward drift of the 

system, instability on Saturday will be negligible, resulting in

minimal thunder activity. By Sunday, the system will begin to 

quickly lift off to the northeast bringing our rain chances to 

an end from west to east. Afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday

will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area.



Another trough will push into the Northern Plains on Sunday 

night/Monday morning. This will sweep a cold front across the state 

on Monday bringing additional rain chances to the area throughout 

the day. Instability with this system looks minimal, so currently 

thinking all activity will remain showery. Temperatures will rebound 

slightly on Monday, reaching into the lower to middle 60s. A few 

spotty showers will linger into Tuesday, especially across eastern 

Kansas. Then, a secondary impulse of the upper-level trough will 

send a reinforcing cold front through the area on Tuesday that

will clear out any remaining rain showers. Behind this 

boundary, much drier and cooler air is expected. Temperatures 

will dip into the middle 50s for Wednesday, with highs remaining

around 60 through the end of the week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Widespread rain and low ceilings throughout the TAF period.

Scattered rain showers will impact the region today and tonight.

Alull in rain activity is possible this afternoon for the 

central Kansas sites. Rain will increase in coverage again 

after 00Z. The main threat with this hazard will be brief,

though minimal, impacts to visibility. MVFR ceilings for all 

sites this morning will fall to IFR by 18Z. Cigs may drop into 

LIFR after 00Z, but confidence remains low on timing and 

magnitude, so opted not to include it at this time.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AMD

AVIATION...AMD