FXUS63 KICT 240547

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1247 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected late tonight

  with chances lasting through Sunday morning. Rain totals in

  excess of one inch remain likely, especially in south central

  and southeast Kansas.



- Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures over the next seven

  days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025



Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon indicate a 

mid/upper low tracking toward the Four Corners. Elevated theta-e 

advection out ahead of the upper feature has promoted the 

development of showers and weak thunderstorms across the Oklahoma 

and Texas Panhandles. These will continue to build into the forecast 

area from the southwest beginning later tonight. Per previous 

forecasts, confidence remains high that storms will remain sub-

severe, though elevated CAPE around 1200 J/kg may allow for small 

hail with the strongest activity through sunrise on Friday. This 

instability will primarily promote heavy rainfall within the 

anomalously-moist incoming airmass given PWs upwards of 1.5 inches, 

especially in southern Kansas. As a result, localized ponding of 

water in low-lying areas is possible, though widespread flooding 

is not expected given relatively dry antecedent soil conditions.



Showers and storms are anticipated to continue throughout the day on 

Friday as the mid/upper low tracks into the southern Rockies. Though 

these may continue into Saturday morning across south central and 

southeast Kansas, better forcing for activity will likely remain to 

our south given a stronger signal for isentropic upglide across 

portions of Oklahoma. From here, the global model suite points to 

the upper low situating itself over the Texas Panhandle as a vort 

max tracks northward through Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. This 

feature will continue to promote rain and storm chances throughout 

the day on Saturday as the system slowly propagates to the east. 

Rain will cease from west to east heading into Saturday night, with 

some lingering activity possible in far southeast Kansas through 

Sunday morning. All told, confidence remains high in much of the 

area seeing at least one inch of rain through the weekend, with 

locations in south and southeast Kansas potentially seeing upwards 

of two inches.



Another shortwave will track across the Northern Plains Sunday 

afternoon/evening. The associated cold front is expected to bring 

chances for scattered showers and storms late Sunday night into 

Monday, though there remains some level of disagreement as to how 

far south activity will reach into Kansas. Following the passage of 

this system, dry conditions are expected to ensue across the 

forecast area as northwest flow aloft resumes. 



Seasonably cool afternoon temperatures are forecast over the next 

seven days with highs in the upper 50s and low/middle 60s. Overnight 

temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s are anticipated through 

Sunday night before a return to the low 40s and potentially upper 

30s possible by Tuesday night.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage in the

overnight hours with MVFR to IFR ceilings moving in as well. The

rain will start to diminish from west to east throughout the

morning into the early afternoon in central and southeast

Kansas. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in south-

central Kansas throughout the afternoon, but there is

uncertainty in whether it will directly impact the terminals, 

so did not include in this issuance. Additionally, ceilings are 

expected to remain in the IFR/LIFR range throughout much of the 

day on Friday.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JWK

AVIATION...GC