FXUS63 KICT 211114

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

614 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Record or near record high temperatures will continue this

  afternoon along with extreme fire danger.



- A cold front on Sunday will bring a brief cool-down for Sun & Mon

  with continued dry conditions.



- Temperatures will rebound for Tue-Thu with above normal

  temperatures expected once again.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Currently, a stout ridge continues to sit over the Desert Southwest 

which is leading to record breaking temperatures for many locations 

in the Southwest and Plains states. A shortwave trough is just 

moving onshore of Pacific Canada. At the surface, high pressure is 

situated to our west over the Rockies with a weak low over the 

eastern U.S. Overall, this is leading to weak forcing in our area 

which has resulted in generally light and variable winds. This will 

change later today as a low pressure system strengthens over the 

Northern Plains ahead of the shortwave trough over Canada. A 

tightening pressure gradient will develop across the Plains leading 

to breezy southwesterly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. 

These southwesterly winds combined with the anomalously strong 

high pressure will lead to another day of potentially record 

breaking temperatures as nearly all locations top out in the 

lower 90s for highs. Breezy winds, well above normal temps, and 

low RH values will lead to very high to extreme fire danger.



For tomorrow, a shortwave trough will dip across the northern tier 

of the U.S. that will act to suppress the ridge some. This trough 

will push a cold frontal boundary across the state during the early 

part of the day. This will lead to quite the disparity in 

temperatures across the forecast area. Behind the front in Central 

Kansas, high temperatures will only reach into the upper 60s. 

Whereas ahead of the front in Southeastern Kansas, afternoon highs 

will top out in the middle to upper 80s. Behind the frontal 

boundary, strong northerly winds are anticipated leading to another 

day of elevated fire danger. Temperatures on Monday will be near 

normal with highs in the lower to middle 60s for nearly all 

locations. 



As we move into Tuesday through the middle of the week, ridging will 

build back in over the region leading to another warm-up with 

temperatures reaching into the 70s and lower 80s for Tuesday and the 

middle to upper 80s for Wednesday. A few lingering clouds are 

expected on Tuesday as the previous system exits to the east, but by 

Wednesday, mostly clear and dry conditions will prevail. Another 

frontal boundary looks to sweep across the state on Thursday which 

will bring us another cool-down for the end of the week and could 

lead to spotty precip chances.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Light winds this morning will quickly increase out of the

southwest by midday. Look for winds generally between 10-15

knots for central and south-central Kansas sites by 18Z. Central

Kansas locations will see gusts this afternoon between 20-25

knots. Winds will become southerly and diminish slightly around

02Z, but winds are expected to remain at or just above 10 knots

through the overnight period.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Breezy southwest winds will combine with very low RH values leading 

to extreme fire danger over parts of central, south central and 

southeast Kansas this afternoon. A cold front will arrive on Sunday 

shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in some cooler, more 

seasonable air. Northwest winds may gust to around 40 mph at times, 

resulting in extreme grassland fire danger for much of the area and 

a fire weather watch remains in effect on Sunday.



As temperatures rebound by mid-week, we could see a resurgence of 

elevated fire danger during the afternoon hours with breezy winds 

and continued dry conditions.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Record highs are once again possible Saturday.



Saturday (3/21):

Wichita: Forecast - 92, Record - 92 (1916) 

Salina:  Forecast - 94, Record - 96 (1907) 

Chanute: Forecast - 91, Record - 95 (1916) 

Russell: Forecast - 94, Record - 85 (1997)



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for 

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Sunday evening 

for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AMD

AVIATION...AMD

FIRE WEATHER...AMD

CLIMATE...AMD