FXUS63 KICT 192357

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

657 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



...Updated Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered storms this afternoon and evening, with additional

  chances this weekend into early next week. 



- Seasonably warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday



- A cooldown will arrive this weekend and persist into early next 

  week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



This morning, a few meandering showers and thunderstorms impacted 

portions of central and eastern Kansas as they developed along 

remnant outflow boundaries and an MCV located in north-central 

Kansas. This activity remained relatively benign but left

additional boundaries across central Kansas. On the synoptic 

scale, a broad upper ridge is centered over the Desert Southwest

which is responsible for the past couple days of heat.



For this afternoon and evening, a short wave over the Upper Midwest 

will push a weak frontal boundary into the state. This front, 

along with the MCV and remnant boundaries, will move south 

across the area this afternoon and evening and be the focal 

point for thunderstorm development. A few storms have already 

developed and moved south into Marion, Chase, and Butler

counties. Activity will continue to drift southward this

afternoon and early evening. While shear will remain relatively

weak, moderate instability and high PWATs will support a few 

wet microbursts through the afternoon and early evening hours. 

This activity will be relatively diurnally driven and is 

expected to dissipate through the late evening hours. Due to the

slow moving nature of this activity, locally heavy rain and 

isolated flash flooding concerns will be the lingering focus 

into the evening hours.



For the rest of the work week, an upper trough across the northern 

tier of the country/southern Canada will help to shift the ridge 

slightly further south and west. This will keep the seasonably warm 

temperatures across the state while leading to drier conditions. 

Afternoon highs through the end of the week will reach into the 

upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. PWATs of around 1.25 inch  are 

expected leading to dewpoints in the upper 60s by Thursday and 

Friday.



Then this weekend into next week, the upper trough across southern 

Canada will dig into the Great Lakes region. This trough will force 

a potent frontal boundary across the Plains on Friday and will 

traverse our area on Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms are 

expected along with the frontal passage with exact timing still 

uncertain. Behind the front, much cooler weather is anticipated. 

Temperatures on Sat/Sun will remain in the 80s. Another pulse of 

cooler air will move into the area Sunday night into Monday leading 

to temperatures for early next week remaining in the 70s. On and off 

isolated precip chances will continue through early next week, but 

current frontal position keeps the higher probabilities further 

south and west.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Lingering showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms will

continue to move south this evening and impact TAF sites across

portions of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Most

of this activity should dissipate by 06z, with VFR conditions

expected through Wednesday.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AMD

AVIATION...ADK