FXUS63 KICT 191932 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms this afternoon and evening, with additional chances this weekend into early next week. - Seasonably warm temperatures for Wednesday through Friday - A cooldown will arrive this weekend and persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 This morning, a few meandering showers and thunderstorms impacted portions of central and eastern Kansas as they developed along remnant outflow boundaries and an MCV located in north-central Kansas. This activity remained relatively benign but left additional boundaries across central Kansas. On the synoptic scale, a broad upper ridge is centered over the Desert Southwest which is responsible for the past couple days of heat. For this afternoon and evening, a short wave over the Upper Midwest will push a weak frontal boundary into the state. This front, along with the MCV and remnant boundaries, will move south across the area this afternoon and evening and be the focal point for thunderstorm development. A few storms have already developed and moved south into Marion, Chase, and Butler counties. Activity will continue to drift southward this afternoon and early evening. While shear will remain relatively weak, moderate instability and high PWATs will support a few wet microbursts through the afternoon and early evening hours. This activity will be relatively diurnally driven and is expected to dissipate through the late evening hours. Due to the slow moving nature of this activity, locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding concerns will be the lingering focus into the evening hours. For the rest of the work week, an upper trough across the northern tier of the country/southern Canada will help to shift the ridge slightly further south and west. This will keep the seasonably warm temperatures across the state while leading to drier conditions. Afternoon highs through the end of the week will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. PWATs of around 1.25 inch are expected leading to dewpoints in the upper 60s by Thursday and Friday. Then this weekend into next week, the upper trough across southern Canada will dig into the Great Lakes region. This trough will force a potent frontal boundary across the Plains on Friday and will traverse our area on Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms are expected along with the frontal passage with exact timing still uncertain. Behind the front, much cooler weather is anticipated. Temperatures on Sat/Sun will remain in the 80s. Another pulse of cooler air will move into the area Sunday night into Monday leading to temperatures for early next week remaining in the 70s. On and off isolated precip chances will continue through early next week, but current frontal position keeps the higher probabilities further south and west. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Mostly-VFR conditions are anticipated at all sites through the end of the period, with the exception of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Latest radar trends and short-term model guidance carry shower and storm chances in central KS as an MCV tracks eastward along/north of I-70. Storms are generally expected to drift southward throughout the evening hours before departing south central and southeast KS around 03-04 Z. Given continued uncertainty regarding timing and exact location, decided to continue with PROB30 at all sites through the evening and will AMD as new model and radar data become available. Otherwise, look for light winds below 10 kts at varying directions through the end ofthe period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AMD AVIATION...JWK