FXUS63 KICT 191736 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered storms through Tonight, with additional chances this weekend into early next week. - Triple digit heat indices again this afternoon. - A cooldown will arrive this weekend and persist into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A decaying complex of storms across the Central High Plains has sent an outflow boundary into central KS. Recent convection has developed along this boundary shortly after midnight. Storm motions are nearly stationary which will lead to some pockets of heavy rain through the early morning hours. We could see some lingering storms and perhaps some new development at times through the predawn hours that may spill into the morning hours on Tuesday. A shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley area today will drive a cold front south into the area while an MVC may drift off of the Central High Plains both becoming a focus for afternoon showers and storms during peak heating. We continue to see a weakly sheared airmass with high PWATs and considerable buoyancy. A handful of strong to severe storms with damaging winds and locally heavy rain appear possible. This activity is expected to grow upscale and propagate into northern OK during the evening hours. Wednesday-Friday...The mid/upper ridge is progged to remain centered over the Southwest through the period while the ridge axis slowly rotates across the Central Plains. This will lead to seasonably warm and dry weather conditions through the period. Afternoon highs are expected to rise into the 90-94 degree range for most areas while lows fall into the 60s. Saturday-Monday...A vigorous mid/upper trough over Manitoba on Friday will dig across Ontario toward the Great Lakes helping to drive another frontal boundary southward across the Central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the fropa Friday night into early Sat. We also expect a surge of drier and much cooler air arriving on Sat. A reinforcing surge may arrive late Sunday into Monday with highs remaining in the 70s Mon-Tue. Low pops were maintained for early next week but a further south frontal position may keep the higher probabilities for showers and storms further south into the Southern Plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Mostly-VFR conditions are anticipated at all sites through the end of the period, with the exception of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Latest radar trends and short-term model guidance carry shower and storm chances in central KS as an MCV tracks eastward along/north of I-70. Storms are generally expected to drift southward throughout the evening hours before departing south central and southeast KS around 03-04 Z. Given continued uncertainty regarding timing and exact location, decided to continue with PROB30 at all sites through the evening and will AMD as new model and radar data become available. Otherwise, look for light winds below 10 kts at varying directions through the end of the period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...JWK