FXUS63 KICT 191719

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1219 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Unseasonably hot temperatures to overspread the area for today

  through Saturday with some records likely set, especially on

  Friday. Cold front set to move through on Sunday, knocking 

  temperatures back down to seasonable normals to start to work 

  week. 



- Warmer temperatures anticipated for both Tuesday and Wednesday

  of next week. 



- Precip looks to remain out of the forecast for at least the 

  next 7 days.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Currently have a strong upper ridging encompassing the Desert

Southwest with northwest flow in place over the Plains. Upper

ridge is expected to remain in place for today and Friday with

850mb temps by Fri afternoon in the 17-20C range. With deep

mixing, this will easily result in temps in the upper 80s if not

close to 90 degrees. With records on Friday all in the mid and

upper 80s, there's a good chance most if not all will be 

broken. There remains good model agreement that some shortwave 

energy will slide across the Pacific Northwest and Northern 

Intermountain on Friday night and into the Northern Plains on 

Saturday. This will allow a cold front to start its push south. 

So confidence is high that Saturday will be the last 

unseasonably hot day, before a cold front moves through the area

on Sunday. Regarding the 00z model runs, the ECMWF is slightly 

faster with the front compared to the GFS and NAM and would 

result in southern and southeast KS still seeing above normal 

highs on Sunday. 



Behind the front, we will get back to seasonal temps to start

the work week, with highs generally in the low 60s. While

confidence is high that we will get back into a warming trend

for Tuesday and Wednesday, confidence starts to drop off after

this point. The latest run of the ECMWF is starting to trend

closer to the GFS in breaking down the western CONUS ridge more

than previous forecasts. If this trend continues, it could

signal another cold front to move through later next week.

Confidence also still remains high that we are not looking for

any decent precip events through the next 7 days.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light

northwesterly winds under 10 kts will continue through 00z. Then

light winds will shift to southerly tonight and continue

shifting to westerly by 12z. At 15z, winds will shift to

northwesterly and increase to around 10 kts at RSL, GBD, and 

SLN. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Very high fire danger will be likely on Saturday across parts of

central KS, with very high fire danger expected to be in place

area wide on Sunday.



For Saturday, the main driver for fire danger will be hot

temperatures that will produce low afternoon RH values in the 

15-20% range. Winds will be out of the southwest around 15 mph 

with a few gusts to 20 mph. 



For Sunday, cold front will move through the area during the day

with gusty north winds following behind the front. Even with

cooler air and higher RH's moving in, there will still be

several hours of very high fire danger across most of the area,

with the main driver being increased winds behind the front.



&&



.CLIMATE...

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Record highs are likely on Friday, and maybe Saturday.



Friday (3/20):

Wichita: Forecast - 88, Record - 89 (2017) 

Salina: Forecast -  87, Record - 86 (1934) 

Chanute: Forecast - 87, Record - 87 (2017) 

Russell: Forecast - 87, Record - 85 (1953)



Saturday (3/21):

Wichita: Forecast - 90, Record - 92 (1916)

Salina:  Forecast - 91, Record - 96 (1907)

Chanute: Forecast - 88, Record- 95 (1916)

Russell: Forecast - 92, Record - 85 (1997)



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RBL

AVIATION...GC

FIRE WEATHER...RBL

CLIMATE...JC