FXUS63 KICT 190453 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1153 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Off-and-on thunderstorm chances this afternoon through Tuesday night, and again this weekend into early next week. - Triple digit heat indices through Tuesday, not quite as hot mid to late this week, turning much cooler this weekend and especially early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING....A subtle MCV and associated gravity wave amidst rich precipitable waters will support a few isolated to widely scattered showers/storms the rest of today into this evening, mainly over eastern to southeast KS. Weak shear will preclude most severe chances, although isolated strong wind gusts can't be ruled out given hefty downdraft CAPE. LATER TONIGHT--TUESDAY NIGHT...An upper trough and associated weak cold front approaching from the north will be the focus for a few rounds of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms later tonight into Tuesday morning, and again by mid-late afternoon Tuesday, persisting through the evening and night. Strong instability and weak shear will preclude widespread severe storms, although isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon-evening given hefty downdraft CAPE values. Activity may try to linger into Wednesday over southern to southeast KS. FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus drives a strong and deep cold frontal zone south and stalls it across the region this weekend into early next week, as a deep longwave trough carves out across eastern North America. This will serve as a focus for increasing thunderstorm chances across the region. While this is still a ways out, the potential for strong to severe storms could increase given the seasonably strong northwest flow aloft and strong/deep baroclinic zone draped across the region. Severe chances will depend on how much instability can be realized. Stay tuned for later forecasts. TEMPERATURES: Another day of afternoon through early evening heat indices of 100- 107 degrees is expected Tuesday. Expect the heat and humidity to decrease just a bit Wednesday through Friday, as high pressure attempts to build in from the north in wake of a weak cold front. For this weekend into especially early next week, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports much cooler temperatures, as eastern North American longwave troughing drives a strong cold front south into the region, with bonifide Canadian high pressure driving south into Mid-America. Daytime highs in the 80s (and possibly even 70s) are likely this weekend, with solid 70s possible by early next week. Overnight lows in the 60s are likely, with some upper 50s possible. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 In general, VFR conditions will be most prevalent across the area, but isolated to widely scattered storms are possible through the TAF period. Early this morning, areas of ACCAS where noted across portions of central and southeast Kansas. Some isolated shower and storm development is possible early this morning across these areas, but warm mid-level temperatures should cap off any widespread convection. Later on this afternoon, a slow moving frontal boundary will sink into central/south-central Kansas, and widely scattered storms are possible during peak diurnal heating. Some of these storms could produce downburst wind gusts around 40-50 knots. Elected to go with PROB30s for KICT and KCNU for this possibility; however, uncertainty in the forecast remains quite high. Chances for showers and storms should come to an end by the nighttimehours. Winds will generally remain at or below 7 knots, and will likely be variable. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JC