FXUS63 KICT 061121

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

621 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light rain showers, especially this morning, with the better

  chances shifting west by the late morning hours. 



- Unseasonably cool today and tonight with some record lows

  possible Thursday morning. 



- Warm-up will start Thursday and continue through Saturday with

  storm chances returning to the area by early Saturday evening.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Currently have a shortwave trough digging across the 

Northern/Central Rockies with a southern stream impulse stretching 

from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the 

surface, the strong cold front that moved through Mon night is 

situated from central AR into west TX. 



Light/moderate rain that is affecting the area looks to be the 

result of isentropic lift along the 295K surface which is generally 

in the 725-780mb range. This area of precip will continue to shift 

east this morning with the majority of it out of the forecast area a 

few hours after sunrise. With the main vort max diving south across 

CO today, it is still looking like the better precip chances will be 

over western and parts of central KS. Precip in this area will also 

be aided by persistent upslope flow today. So current thinking is 

that the western portion of our forecast area will have the higher 

rainfall chances today. Shortwave energy will continue to slide 

southeast this evening, pushing the better rainfall chances out of 

our forecast area. 



Northwest flow aloft will setup over the Plains for Thu with some 

weak upper energy set to track out of the Northern Rockies and 

across the central Plains Thu evening, with any precip it 

generates expected to stay north of the area. We look to stay in

northwest flow aloft through the weekend with a more robust 

upper wave set to move out into the Central Plains by early Sat 

evening. This will bring our next chance for storms with most of

the activity east of the forecast area by Sun morning. 



As far as temps go, still expecting highs today to stay in the 50s 

for most locations with overnight lows falling to near record 

values as they sink into the 30s. Most record lows Thu morning 

are in the low and mid 30s, which is very close to what we are 

forecasting. So this will be something we need to keep an eye 

on. We will get back into the low 70s for Thu with widespread 

mid and upper 80s by Sat. Sunday will be slightly cooler, but 

highs will still be a couple degrees above normal.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Main aviation concerns will be some showers this morning along

with lower ceilings.



Scattered showers affected much of the area overnight and have

been steadily on the decrease over the last few hours, with

mainly just parts of central KS still seeing showers. Central KS

is expected to continue seeing some light showers for the next

few hours with the better chances shifting to western KS by the

late morning hours. Ceilings will remain at VFR levels for most

sites today, with the exception of KRSL-KGBD, which may see a

few pockets of MVFR levels this morning. By the afternoon hours,

confidence is high that all sites will be at VFR levels. 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RBL

AVIATION...RBL