FXUS63 KICT 051921

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

221 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Much cooler through Wednesday with a return to seasonable 

  temperatures Thursday.



- Above normal temperatures return for Friday and Saturday with 

  storm chances returning late Saturday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



A deep trough was situated over Ontario while another shortwave 

trough over the Northern High Plains was rotating through this 

feature and will arrive over the Central Rockies/Central High Plains 

tonight and Wednesday. This feature will merge with another 

shortwave trough lifting out of the Southwest bringing

increasing chances for showers and some wintry weather into 

parts of northwest Kansas. Mid-level warm air advection is 

progged to increase tonight and persist into Wednesday morning 

leading to continued chances for light rain showers, with the 

highest confidence for precipitation in central and western 

Kansas early in the day before diminishing as we move into the 

afternoon hours. We still expect rainfall amounts to remain on 

the light side with most locations seeing less than 0.25 inches 

of rain. Another cool day is anticipated with below average 

temperatures; afternoon highs are expected to top out in the 50s

once again.



As surface high pressure builds into the Lower/Middle Mississippi 

Valley area on Thursday, southerly low level flow will return to the 

Central Plains. This will allow seasonably mild air to return to the 

area with some increasing insolation and highs in the upper 

60s/lower 70s. A subtle frontal boundary is progged to sweep over 

the area on Friday with little impacts to sensible weather 

anticipated.



Another shortwave trough is progged to dig into the Central Plains 

late Saturday bringing increasing chances for showers and perhaps a 

few storms with cooler air arriving in it's wake. Northwest 

mid/upper flow is progged to prevail Mon-Tue with mild and mostly 

dry weather conditions anticipated through the period.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Scattered showers continue across much of the region early this

afternoon with minimal impacts anticipated. These showers should

slowly move eastward this afternoon, and a break in 

precipitation is forecast this evening. Additional showers are 

expected to develop, especially across central Kansas, late 

tonight into Wednesday morning. Additionally, this round of 

showers will also be accompanied by MVFR to IFR ceilings. 

Towards the end of the TAF period, ceilings should begin to 

rise, though a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions may persist going 

into Wednesday afternoon.



Currently, winds at the surface remain breezy out of the

northeast with sustained winds around 10 to 20 knots and gusts

around 25 to 30 knots at times. Winds should decrease to around

10 knots tonight, and they will remain out of the northeast

through the remainder of the TAF period.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MWM

AVIATION...JC