FXUS63 KICT 051739

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

1239 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...Updated Aviation Discussion...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Much cooler temperatures for today and Wednesday with a return

  to seasonal temps for Thursday. Many areas for today and 

  Wednesday will not see highs make it out of the 50s.



- Above normal readings for Friday and Saturday with storm

  chances returning for Saturday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Currently have a deep broad upper trough encompassing all of 

the Northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes region with the

upper low centered over eastern Ontario. Meanwhile, a closed 

upper low is also situated over central CA. At the surface 

strong cold front stretches from near KCNU into western OK. 



Storms have been developing over the last few hours across the

Flint Hills in an area of strong 700mb theta-e advection north

of the cold front. Storms will continue to push east this

morning as the better mid level warm advection also shifts 

east. Cold front will be through the forecast area by sunrise 

with plenty of clouds and much cooler temps moving into the 

area. We also should continue to see some pockets of light rain 

throughout the day as the upper trough continues to dig across 

the Central Rockies. The western CONUS upper low will continue 

tracking over the Four Corners region and will phase with the 

northern stream trough late tonight with the trough finally 

swinging through KS by early Thu morning. So we are currently 

expecting the best chances for rain over western and parts of 

central KS for tonight into Wed with rain chances sinking south 

for Wed night. Rainfall amounts will generally be on the light 

side with higher amounts over western KS. 



Confidence remain very high that temps today and Wed will be

below normal with many locations not making it out of the 50s.

These readings will be around 15 degrees below seasonal highs

for this time of year. 



Northwest flow aloft will be in place Thu, which will allow

temps to quickly get back to normal, with most locations seeing

highs back into the low 70s. Warming trend will continue into

Fri as we get back into the 80s with these warm readings

continuing into Sat. Storm chances will return for Sat night

into Sun as some upper energy tracks out of the Northern Rockies

and across the Central Plains. As this wave tracks southeast, a

brief cool down is anticipated for Sun.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Scattered showers continue across much of the region early this

afternoon with minimal impacts anticipated. These showers should

slowly move eastward this afternoon, and a break in 

precipitation is forecast this evening. Additional showers are 

expected to develop, especially across central Kansas, late 

tonight into Wednesday morning. Additionally, this round of 

showers will also be accompanied by MVFR to IFR ceilings. 

Towards the end of the TAF period, ceilings should begin to 

rise, though a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions may persist going 

into Wednesday afternoon.



Currently, winds at the surface remain breezy out of the

northeast with sustained winds around 10 to 20 knots and gusts

around 25 to 30 knots at times. Winds should decrease to around

10 knots tonight, and they will remain out of the northeast

through the remainder of the TAF period.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RBL

AVIATION...JC