FXUS63 KICT 041731 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Better chances for off and on thunderstorms still look to target the Wednesday through Thursday night period with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible - Hotter temperatures and dry weather looks to be on tap for this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave departing North Dakota northeast into Canada. This system has pushed a cold front southward into western Kansas early this morning which will continue to move slowly southeast towards central Kansas today. Scattered showers and few embedded weak storms look to linger this morning across central Kansas into parts of south central Kansas. Hot temperatures will affect locations south of the cold front today with upper 90s to near 100 expected, and not as hot for locations north of the front in central Kansas. A few storms look to redevelop later this afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary over central Kansas. Limited instability and high inverted-V type soundings supports gusty downburst winds from any stronger updraft(severe threat is low). Low level jet increases tonight with the main focus from this feature favoring more numerous showers/storms developing over eastern Nebraska into Iowa overnight. Current satellite imagery also shows another upper level wave embedded in the strong westerly flow over the northern Rockies with a second system diving southeast across western Canada. This first wave looks to spark off additional showers/storms late tonight over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas from modest 700mb warm air advection. This scattered activity will drift slowly southeast across Kansas on Wednesday with surface front also moving slowly southeast across the region. The cloud coverage and lingering activity could limit instability build-up over central/south central Kansas and lower daytime highs. Meanwhile there is some potential for higher instability to materialize over southeast Kansas, and combine with increasing mid-level winds from approaching second upper level wave. This could yield a few strong to marginally severe storms over southeast Kansas late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Storms look to increase in coverage for Wednesday night north of the surface front where 700mb warm advection from the models favors elevated showers/storms. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible given combination of elevated instability with favorable directional wind shear(700-500mb layer) and increased mid- level flow. Heading into Thursday daytime highs could come in a little cooler than current forecast, especially with surface front projected to be stalled near or south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Showers/storms could increase for Thursday night with 700mb warm advection commencing north of the surface front. Models remain consistent with upper level high pressure center expanding slowly eastward from the Rockies out into the plains for the weekend into early next week. This will cause the heat dome and dry weather to build over Kansas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 A cold front continues to move south into parts of central Kansas this afternoon. Winds in the wake of the front will shift to the northeast around 10 knots with some higher gusts at times. Isolated showers will remain possible in post-frontal airmass although VFR is expected to prevail until late tonight and into early on Wed when some MVFR ceilings are expected along the I-70 corridor with MVFR likely. Ahead of the front, gusty southerly winds may gust to around 25 knots at times. Isolated showers may also be possible but most locations are expected to remain dry. The front will move slowly southward tonight shifting winds to the northeast for areas along and west of the Turnpike with isolated showers or sprinkles lingering. The front may become stationary early on Wed depending how widespread the shower activity is with some light showers or sprinkles moving into southeast KS early on Wed. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...MWM