FXUS63 KICT 040827

AFDICT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wichita KS

327 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- One last day of above normal temps before a strong cold front

  brings much colder readings for Tuesday and Wednesday. 



- Storm chances this evening with a couple strong to low end

  severe storms possible. Scattered rain chances will remain for

  Tuesday through Wednesday night with strong or severe storms

  not expected. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Water vapor imagery currently shows a deep upper low digging

across southern Manitoba and about to move into Ontario. At the

surface, a stationary front currently stretches from near Kansas

City to near Great Bend and into far southwest KS. Meanwhile, a

much stronger cold front is starting to make its way across ND. 



Deep upper trough will continue to dig across the Northern

Plains into the Western Great Lakes region with a strong cold

front also continuing to surge south. By 00z, cold front is

expected to stretch generally along the KS/NE border. Confidence

in daytime convection still remains low, with the higher chances

north of the forecast area, along the cold front. There is a

small chance that a storm may develop along or just west of a

Russell to Great Bend line or down along the dryline in central

OK. However, the better storm chances will be after 00z as the

front pushes south and low level jet gets going. Feel the best

storm coverage will be over northeast KS into the northeast

portion of our forecast area. This is where the higher mid level

theta-e advection will take place. Some hail will be possible

this evening with the stronger storms given 1500-2000J/kg of

MUCAPE and plenty of shear. Keeping with the thinking that dime

to quarter size hail will be the main threat this evening and

overnight. 



By 12z Tue, cold front will be through the forecast area with

gusty northeast winds in place. Right behind the front as it

moves through, we could see a brief period of northeast winds

near wind advisory criteria, but it will not last more than an

hour or two. Cold and cloudy conditions are anticipated for Tue,

but the better rain chances look to be over far nw KS and

eastern KS into southern MO. Models remain consistent in

tracking an upper low across the Desert Southwest with most of

the energy phasing with the northern stream upper trough near

the Four Corners region for Tue night into Wed. Models are

starting to come into agreement that the most widespread precip

with the system will be over western KS along with parts of

central KS. The main driver for precip will be mid level

frontogenesis along with deep upslope flow. Upper trough will

quickly swing east Wed evening, taking the higher rainfall

chances with it. Confidence remains very high in below normal 

temps for Tue with highs in the 60s, with even cooler readings 

for Wed, with highs remaining in the 50s. 



We will get back into northwest flow aloft for Thu, which will

allow a return to seasonal temps, with above normal readings

anticipated for Fri into Sat. Storm chances will then return for

Sat night into Sun as a fast moving impulse tracks out of the 

Central Rockies and across the area. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the 

afternoon before chances for showers and storms arrive this

evening, primarily in central and southeast KS.



LLWS diagnosed at 1.4 kft will subside by sunrise with south winds 

expected across south central and southeast KS. A stalled frontal 

boundary spanning through central KS will result in largely variable 

winds throughout the day today before a cold front turns winds 

around to the north late in the period.



Short-term models highlight storm chances arriving later this 

evening and prevailing beyond the period, with greater chances 

residing primarily at SLN and CNU. Introduced a PROB30 group after 

00Z at these sites plus RSL to account for uncertainty in storm 

development and coverage. Stay tuned to later cycles as 

additional information becomes available.



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RBL

AVIATION...JWK