FXUS63 KGRR 241859 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 259 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet Weather Next Several Days && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Quiet Weather Next Several Days The upper low will be pulling away with lake effect rain showers ending this evening. As heights rise, a subsidence inversion forms which could trap a layer of stratus clouds this evening. Continued drying and subsidence should cause the clouds to mix out later this evening, which will allow temperatures to fall below freezing by daybreak in most places. Some steam fog is possible near inland bodies of water, but this will be shallow and mix out quickly after sunrise. A shortwave trough topping the longwave western CONUS ridge damps out across the Great Lakes on Saturday and a closed upper low over the Southern Plains moves east and forms a rex block for Sunday into next week. This is a complex pattern and models are still showing a lot of uncertainty in the specifics. Chances for measurable rains on Tuesday and Wednesday appear rather low, despite an upper low or lows retrograding into the Great Lakes from the NE CONUS by Tuesday. The higher precip chances appear to remain south of Lower Michigan, in an area of f-gen on the northern periphery of a sfc low tracking across the Ohio Valley and into the NE CONUS by late in the week. This is followed by the amplification of a longwave trough axis and strong cold advection across the Great Lakes with a chance of rain and snow showers by next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Ongoing stratocu will be generally VFR through the afternoon before scattering out this evening. Brief periods of clear skies are possible overnight as high pressure drives our weather before mid and high clouds enter the region. LAN in particular looks to take the longest to clear out given moisture trapping under the inversion. There is a low (10-20 percent) chance of fog at all sites except MKG as depicted in the HREF/NBM. Will not include given questionable boundary layer moisture quality but will monitor trends. West to northwest winds today become east to southeast winds tonight less than 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 High pressure and a weaker gradient across the area will keep winds and waves below small craft advisory levels the next several days. Offshore flow then increases during the day Sunday into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed by Monday as the low- level jet increases across the lake. Given the offshore flow, any advisory would be predominantly wind driven. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas