FXUS63 KGRR 240729 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering clouds and a few showers today - Quiet with seasonable temperatures early next week - Some unsettled weather possible late next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Lingering clouds and a few showers today Shower coverage and intensity continues to slowly taper off over the area, but we are not quite done with it yet for this system. We remain under the cyclonic flow aloft and deep colder air aloft for a little while longer. The WV imagery shows this nicely with the edge of the better moisture over Wisconsin and Lake Michigan this morning, with a couple of ripples evident. A weak sfc trough passing through is causing a few showers along the lakeshore near Holland. Then, a few showers remain up north across Central Lower which are mainly still some pure lake effect. The concentration of the showers this afternoon with the diurnal boost will be across the NE half of the forecast area. This is because the upper jet core will lift to the NE, and will move through there this evening. That will give them a chance to pop a few diurnal showers yet. We should see skies clear out a bit this evening and overnight from SW to NE as the upper jet core and shear zone lift out of the area, and we see building subsidence build in. - Quiet with seasonable temperatures this weekend and early next week We are looking at most of the area staying dry from Saturday through at least Monday. For the big picture, we have an upper ridge over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest that will dominate our weather through the weekend and on Monday. This will support a sfc ridge over the region that will funnel dry and cool air in over the area. We will have a weak short wave diving SE downstream of the upper ridge that will prevent the area from seeing clear skies, and could even bring a shower to southern lakeshore communities. There will be almost no moisture available with the large scale subsidence building in, and any appreciable moisture moving out today. However, there may be just enough lift across the southern lakeshore, along with instability over the lake to bring a quick shower. Once the short wave finishes moving through Saturday evening, the upper ridge will then completely take over and bring a couple of sunny days to the area with seasonable temperatures in the 50s. - Some unsettled weather possible mid-late next week The upper ridge does not really move much after Monday, but it ends up getting squeezed by multiple upper troughs to our West, South and East that look to eventually consolidate over the region into one fairly expansive and broad upper low. A couple of the pieces of energy will be already in place this weekend, with a trough over the SE states, and the departing upper low currently over the area shifting east. Then, we see a fairly strong Pacific jet of 150+ knots come on shore over the CONUS and will look to consolidate with the other troughs to produce one big low. How this setup transpires, where the specific parts of the energy end up, and the timing will all dictate our specific weather. How ever it transpires, it does look like rain chances will move in and stick around, along with slightly cooler weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions should rule through this forecast period, however we will maintain clouds for most of the period. We currently have a deck of clouds mainly between 5-6k ft agl across all of the terminals. These should persist, and maybe even lower slightly by daybreak. They will be reinforced by diurnal development throughlate afternoon. The clouds should then slowly clear out from SW to NE this evening into the early overnight hours, and winds will go light and variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 No changes are needed to the SCA in effect into this afternoon. The latest data indicates that winds and waves will come down enough by then, and maybe even a tad earlier than previously expected. The weekend is expected to remain quiet regarding winds and waves as high pressure will dominate the weather over the area. Our next potential headline event will come as early as late Sunday night and more likely Monday. This would be mainly a wind event, as the flow will be from the east/offshore direction. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...NJJ