FXUS63 KGRR 201734 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 134 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain Showers This Morning - Warmup Today into Saturday, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday - Seasonable Temperatures Early Next Week, Mostly Dry && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 - Rain Showers This Morning At this time, water vapor images show an upper PV max moving southeast across eastern Lake Superior while an extensive area of precipitation is moving across the UP and northern Lower MI ahead of this feature. Based on latest radar trends and guidance, have extended PoPs farther to the south and east this morning. Our northeast zones in central interior Lower MI should receive the greatest amount of precipitation. Surface observations there are reporting temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Given that southeast to south winds will likely increase with the approach of the associated surface low, it is unlikely temperatures will be able to drop to freezing; hence, freezing rain is not expected. This is good news to central interior Lower MI, which has already had more than its share of ice accumulations recently. Precipitation should exit the area by late morning/early afternoon. - Warmup Today into Saturday, Rain Saturday Night/Sunday Aforementioned southerly flow today into Saturday will support a warmup ranging from near 50 north to lower 60s south. At Grand Rapids, this will equate to mid to upper 50s, which is about 10 degrees above normal. A cold front is expected to push through Saturday Night into Sunday with mostly post-frontal precipitation that should be chiefly rain. This assumption of rain is based on warm antecedent temperatures and what appears to be a lack of deep cold advection with the system driving the front. Trends have been to slow this front, which is not surprising given what appears to be a deep layer of boundary-parallel flow. There is in fact some question about how soon this front exits the area, or whether it becomes stationary in the vicinity into Monday. - Seasonable Temperatures Early Next Week, Mostly Dry Running under the assumption (and majority report) that the post-frontal precipitation departs by late Sunday, Monday will see the advancement of surface and mid-level ridging into the region. The forecast is generally for dry conditions, however latest guidance suggests that shortwaves (which are difficult to pin down at this forecast range) may drive low precipitation chances. Highs will generally be in the 40s to low 50s, which is near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Latest IR loop shows high clouds moving south across the region. Conditions are VFR at the terminals, but that will change this evening. A weak cold front will move south across Lower MI resulting in low cloud development and some fog after midnight. We could see cigs fall below 1k ft for a few hours prior to sunrise. However, once the front moves south of the terminals, cigs will quickly improve to VFR shortly after 12z. && .MARINE... Issued at 418 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Based on latest wind and wave guidance, decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory for our central marine zones. Winds and waves will peak shortly after 8 AM, followed by a gradual decrease. The expiration time of 8 PM may end up being a bit too long, so wouldn't be surprised if later shifts decide to cancel this early. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Only one site remains at or above flood stage as of this afternoon. The Grand River at Comstock Park is now cresting at minor flood stage. The Maple River at Maple Rapids went below minor flood stage this morning allowing the warning to be cancelled. With light amounts of precipitation expected over the next few days, additional flooding is not expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TJT/Thomas AVIATION...04 MARINE...TJT HYDROLOGY...Thomas