FXUS63 KGRR 072258 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 658 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow and Rain Chances Wednesday into Thursday - Warming Up into the Weekend && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 - Snow and Rain Chances Wednesday into Thursday Our next round of precipitation moves in Wednesday as positive vorticity, warm air, and moisture advection move in ahead of a low pressure system moves through the region. The overall track and strength of the system will impact our temperature profile and overall precipitation type. Our current forecast using the NBM gives us more of a rain/snow mix transitioning to rain with little to no snow accumulations. If colder air is realized we may see amounts closer to the 75th percentile of around an inch. Probabilities of an inch or more are currently 30 percent or less across much of the area except for slightly higher probabilities of 40 to 50 percent in Clare and Osceola counties. Either way with mild temperatures in place, would expect accumulations if any on grassy surfaces. Drier conditions then move in Thursday night and continue into the weekend. - Warming Up into the Weekend High pressure builds over the area for the end of the week. Ensembles highlight the dry period and warming trend into next week. Highs Tuesday will be in the 30s, but each day highs will increase by several degrees with 50s and 60s expected over the weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 657 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Little in the way of aviation concerns over the next 24 hours. Diurnal cumulus will diminish shortly after sunset with a a few hours break before lake-induced stratocu develop overnight. A SCT to BKN deck in the 5-7 kft range is expected keeping conditions VFR. Skies then clear out in the last few hours of the TAF window as high pressure reaches the area. Current northerly winds of 15-20 knots gusting to 25-30 knots subside to northwesterly at 10-15 knots overnight and stay there through the rest of the TAF window. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Gusty northerly winds will continue through late tonight with some isolated gales for the rest of this afternoon. Waves will be slow to come down, but are expected to fall below Small Craft Advisory criteria Tuesday morning. Southerly winds move in for Wednesday along with chances for mainly rain. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...RAH