FXUS63 KGRR 070626 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 226 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief Burst of Snow Monday Morning - Rain/Snow Chances Midweek && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 No changes to the going forecast at this time but it should be noted that the new 00Z HRRR has backed off considerably on tomorrow morning's quick snow burst with the cold frontal passage. Will wait for complete 00Z guidance before considering any adjustments to pops, timing, and QPF/SnowAmts. Either way, little in the way of impacts expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 - Brief Burst of Snow Monday Morning A quick moving cold front will swing through Monday morning. Plenty of lift with this front with saturation reaching into the dendritic growth zone. This will bring a brief burst of snow across the area with amounts under an inch. With the warm surface temperatures not expecting snow to really stick, any accumulations would be limited to grassy surfaces. Visibilities though are expected to fall impacting portions of western and central Michigan for the morning commute. Some light lake effect snow may develop and bring additional light snow toward the US-10 corridor. Slightly higher snowfall accumulations are possible in Mason and Lake counties with amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range. - Rain/Snow Chances Midweek Positive vorticity advection moves in for Wednesday along with some convergence with the low level jet. This will bring a round of rain/snow showers through Thursday as a low pressure system passes us to the south. Temperatures look to warm enough where we see a transition to all rain Thursday afternoon before dry conditions return. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 At 06Z a cold front stretched from just north of the Mackinac Bridge, southwest across Northern Lake Michigan into Central Wisconsin. The front is dropping south and will usher in MVFR conditions this morning for a time at each TAF site, along with some snow showers for an hour or two. The lower clouds and light snow showers can be expected between 11Z and 17Z at the TAF sites. Otherwise VFR weather is expected as cold/dry air advects in on northerly winds. A gusty north wind of 14-30 knots can be expected today in the wake of the frontal passage. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A cold front will move through Monday morning with northwest winds gusting to 30 knots. A brief period of gales is possible Monday morning and early afternoon. Winds and waves will be slow to drop lower than Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The Red Cedar at East Lansing is slowly falling as expected and is anticipated to drop below flood stage tonight. The Maple River at Maple Rapids has risen above flood stage and is forecast to remain at flood stage through Monday before falling. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...RAH AVIATION...Duke MARINE...RAH HYDROLOGY...RAH