FXUS63 KGRR 060137 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 937 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clearing tonight/Sunday, then winter returns - Midweek Rain && .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Light rain threat is over but considerable clouds still linger. The clouds will likely linger much of the night, at least in southern sections, per IR satellite trends. North winds continue to send cooler/dry air into the region and low temps are expected to fall into the low to mid 20s over northern sections where some better clearing is likely late, to around 30 in the south where more clouds are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Clearing tonight/Sunday, then winter returns Latest visible loop shows clearing across the northwest cwa with plenty of clouds elsewhere. At the same time that lower clouds are eroding from the northwest, convection across the Arkansas Valley associated with a wave of low pressure continues to advect mid/high clouds northeastward toward the Great Lakes. Despite ridging nosing in from the west tonight, clouds really won't depart the southeast/south cwa until late tonight once the Arkansas wave finally moves across the Ohio Valley.That should set the stage for a sunny Sunday. However, that will be short lived, because an upper trough is progd to drop south toward the upper Midwest Sunday night. The surface low, coupled with a a surge of Arctic air, will result in light snow developing Sunday night and Monday. This system will mostly affect the northern cwa where an inch or two of snow may accumulate. It's possible an inch could fall as far south as I-96. H8 temps will fall from -2c to -12z by Monday afternoon. Thus Monday and Tuesday will feel like winter again. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 30s. This time of year, though, winter conditions don't last long and this will be no different. Highs Wednesday will be near 50. - Midweek Rain The GFS ensembles are pretty bullish on rain late Wednesday and Thursday; the ECMWF ensembles less so. However, but models do show some precipitation developing in conjunction with an upper short wave dropping south through the Great Lakes. So we'll maintain the mention of light rain developing. It's possible some wet snow my mix in with the rain Wednesday night too, but little if any accumulation is expected. Highs in the mid 50s are expected mid to late week which are close to normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 No impacts to aviation expected over the next 24 hours. Dry low- level moisture profiles will lead to VFR conditions as primarily mid and level high clouds are expected over the TAF period. Skies will become mostly clear to clear at times. Winds will be from the west to northwest at 5-10 knots. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Latest hydro forecasts coming in for the rivers enabled us to cancel flood warnings for Sycamore Creek at Holt and the Portage River near Vicksburg. Last night's rainfall didn't overperform and so no additional flooding is expected, other than what's ongoing, which is the Red Cedar at East Lansing. That flood warning remains in effect until early Monday morning. The good news there is that the current river trace reveals that the crest has arrived in East Lansing and the Red Cedar will begin to slowly fall this afternoon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Meade DISCUSSION...04 AVIATION...Thomas HYDROLOGY...04