FXUS63 KGRR 051811 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 211 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Frost and Freeze Conditions Expected north of I-96 Tonight - Another chance for widespread Frost/Freeze Thursday Morning - Cooler Temps with light rain trending into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 - Frost and Freeze Conditions Expected north of I-96 Tonight The dry gusty northwesterly flow will continue through the day. That will drop dewpoints into the 20s to 30s through much of northern lower Michigan, including our northern two tier of counties, mainly regions along and north of M 20. As temperatures drop this evening the winds will slacken and given the dry dewpoints and clearing sky, the temperatures will drop overnight into Wednesday morning. Given those conditions widespread frost is likely through northern Montcalm county northward. Lake, Osceola and Clare will see the steepest drop in temperatures and thus have issued a freeze warning for those regions. Conditions will improve fairly quickly after sunrise Wednesday morning. - Another chance for widespread Frost/Freeze Thursday Morning The cold northwesterly flow will continue through tomorrow. A fairly dry upper level trough will slowly move through the upper Great Lakes as the moisture boundary remains entrenched through the Upper Tennessee River valley. The big concern will be the further concern for frost and freeze. 850mb lows tomorrow evening into Thursday will drop to -3C. There will be some increasing mid level moisture which could hinder temps from dropping. However, given the diurnal surface inversion, dry air at the surface and near calm winds, near freezing temperatures could be widespread. Will see how these develop but may need headlines tomorrow night as well. - Cooler Temps with rain trending into this weekend. Temperatures will continue to trend below normal through the rest of the week, though they will mildly increase through the latter half of the week and into the weekend. A large upper level trough over Central Canada will dominant the weather pattern through the end of the weekend into the weekend. That low will cycle through upper and mid level waves through the region bringing late day chances for precipitation through Saturday. Best chance for heavier precipitation will be Saturday evening depending on how the boundary sits. Currently it could extend across southern lower Michigan with heaviest precip possible at this time through southern Michigan. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 631 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected with showers possible along and south of a AZO to LAN line. Ceilings with rainfall are expected to be around 6000 feet with little to no visibility restrictions. Northwest winds with gusts to 20 knots are possible this morning and afternoon before becoming light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected today with waves of 1 to 3 feet this morning dropping below 2 feet this afternoon. Northerly winds continue through Wednesday and then shift to the west for Thursday. Winds will then shift to the southwest for Friday into the weekend. Winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ037- 043>046-051. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ038>040. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...RAH MARINE...RAH