FXUS63 KGRR 031844

AFDGRR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

144 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Some Snow in Mason and Oceana Counties along the Lakeshore



- Next Round of Widespread Snow Thursday into Friday



- Cold this Weekend the Moderating Temperatures Next Week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 144 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



- Some Snow in Mason and Oceana Counties along the Lakeshore



Overall other than some light flurries most of the area will be

dry through Wednesday. Within the north to northeast flow this

evening an area of convergence will develop over Lake Michigan

creating a narrow band of snow. This band of snow may clip

portions of Mason and Oceana counties tonight into Wednesday

providing a dusting to an inch of snow through Wednesday

afternoon.



- Next Round of Widespread Snow Thursday into Friday



Warm air advection moves in for Thursday bringing another round of

snow during the day along with some additional support from

positive vorticity advection with a quick moving shortwave trough.

As this lift exits moisture becomes more shallow and we'll need to

monitor for freezing drizzle Thursday night into early Friday

morning. 



Another shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity 

advection move through Friday morning bringing back the deeper 

moisture for snowfall through the rest of Friday morning before 

dry conditions return. Total snowfall amounts will largely be 2 

inches or less with areas northwest of Grand Rapids having the 

better chances (20 to 40 percent) of seeing 2-3 inches. 

Temperatures Friday are expected to warm into the mid 30s for much

of the area before the colder air advects into the region.



- Cold this Weekend the Moderating Temperatures Next Week



Behind the cold front 850mb temperatures fall to around -18 C with

limited moisture behind the front. Low inversion heights and drier

air will not bring a favorable environment for lake effect snow.

Therefore only expecting cold temperatures with highs in the teens

to low 20s and lows around zero away from Lake Michigan. This dip

in temperatures will be short lived as we gradually warm up Sunday

into next week where we could see temperatures rise above freezing

again.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 641 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



We are starting out this morning with MVFR ceilings down along

the I-94 corridor terminals, VFR along the I-96 corridor, and 

MVFR north of I-96. The northern MVFR conditions are in the wake 

of a weak front dropping through. The winds are shifting from SW 

ahead of the front, to NW behind it along with the MVFR 

conditions. We expect the MVFR conditions to persist most of the 

day, along with flurries that should not bring visibilities down 

below MVFR. The wind will change this evening to become from the 

NE. This is likely to lift ceilings a bit to VFR.



&&



.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RAH

AVIATION...Ceru