FXUS63 KGRB 240759 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 259 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Warning continues for east-central Wisconsin this morning, likely ending the growing season. - Below normal temperatures today followed by a slow warming trend into the weekend. - Small chances of rain (15-25%) added to the forecast for Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday A deep eastern North America trough axis is currently positioned across the eastern Great Lakes, maintaining cyclonic flow over northeast Wisconsin this morning. Early morning temperatures range from the middle 20s in Laona to the lower 40s at Oshkosh. With stratocumulus clouds slowly breaking up over the area, temperatures could still fall quickly at the warmer locations over the Fox Valley. No change to the Freeze Warning, which remains in effect until 9 am CDT. Upstream, high pressure is centered over the northern Mississippi Valley under clear skies. A compact shortwave with near-normal precipitable water and high cloud bases is moving across southeast Saskatchewan. Forecast concerns largely revolve around temperatures and light rain chances into Saturday. Precipitation: High pressure will move across the area today. Lingering stratocumulus clouds are expected over far northern and central Wisconsin this morning. This scattered to broken cloud deck is anticipated to gradually erode or depart this afternoon. Isolated to scattered fair weather clouds may briefly develop over northeast WI where skies are currently clear late this morning before dissipating by mid-afternoon. Mid and high clouds will increase and lower from west to east tonight as the compact shortwave moves toward northwest Wisconsin. A slight chance of light rain or sprinkles (15-25% chance of precipitation) is forecast to arrive after 5 AM CDT Saturday and continue through the rest of Saturday morning in north-central Wisconsin (Rhinelander, Antigo, Wausau area). The drier airmass over eastern Wisconsin should keep the forecast dry tonight but will bring a chance of sprinkles on Saturday. Temperatures: A slight warming trend begins today, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs on Saturday are generally expected to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area, which is cooler than the previous forecast. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday Relatively low-impact weather is expected to persist from this weekend through the middle of next week. Precipitation: Dry weather remains forecast for the area on Sunday. Then energy moving out of the western U.S. trough could potentially develop a closed upper low over the Great Lakes in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, when rain chances return to the area. Confidence with the evolution of this system is low. Temperatures: A general warming trend continues into the start of the long-term period, with temperatures peaking on Sunday. Highs on Sunday are forecast to reach the mid-50s across the area. Temperatures will then cool slightly with the arrival of the next system early next week. Boating hazards: Broad low pressure moving into the Northern Great Plains on Sunday will result in breezy southeast winds (10 to 20 knots) over Lake Michigan from Sunday through at least Tuesday. This persistent onshore flow is expected to create hazardous conditions for small craft. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 958 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 High pressure builds in later tonight, but MVFR to lower VFR clouds will be slow to scatter out over northern and central WI (CWA/AUW/RHI). Though the BKN-OVC stratocu clouds this evening over east-central WI (GRB/ATW/MTW) will mainly scatter out overnight, there still could be scattered to potentially broken VFR clouds drifting across through the night. On Friday, any lingering stratocu will scatter out at CWA/AUW early, while clouds at RHI will not erode until late morning. Otherwise, it will become mostly clear in the afternoon with just passing high clouds. Winds will be light, mainly from the west-northwest. Conditions remain VFR on Friday night as mid and high clouds slowly increase from the west. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ038>040- 048>050. && $$ DISCUSSION.....MPC AVIATION.......JLA