FXUS63 KGRB 191747 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1247 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures continue rising above normal, with the warmth peaking Saturday. Snowmelt and increased flows and rising levels on rivers and streams are expected. Several rivers may reach bankfull or even minor flood stage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 The wintry mix associated with a clipper system will end across the region early this morning. There could be some minor impacts with the morning commute, especially on untreated roadways. Otherwise, dry weather is expected once this system tracks east for the rest of the morning and into the afternoon. Temperatures continue their climb today, as highs reach into the 40s away from the lakeshore. Another clipper system will affect the area tonight, mainly bringing light rain to the northern and eastern CWA as temperatures stay in the 30s. The warming trend continues across the region on Friday as highs reach the 40s across the Fox Valley and lakeshore, with around 50 across central and north-central Wisconsin. The warming will bring an increased risk for fog with the warm air advecting over the substantial snowpack, especially during the overnight hours. A low pressure system developing over the Plains will bring a surge of warm air to the region on Saturday along with some small chances for rain across far north-central Wisconsin. This will likely be the warmest day in the upcoming week as temperatures soar into the 50s across central Wisconsin with a 20-40% chance of hitting 60 degrees south of Highway 10. The cold side of this low pressure system will track through the area Saturday night, bringing colder temperatures and a rain/snow mix as a cold front sinks south through Sunday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to impacts with this system as some models are more robust with QPF amounts, which is evident with the large spread between the 50th and 90th percentiles for snowfall amounts. High pressure will then provide dry weather to the area early next week. Despite the passage of the aforementioned cold front, highs will still remain in the 30s and 40s through early next week. These "cooler" temperatures appear to be short lived as warmer temperatures in the 40s and 50s are expected to return by the middle of next week, which will continue the snowmelt along with the threat for fog. Additional clipper systems are expected to impact the region during the middle part of next week, bringing the chance for precipitation at times. Although the first one of these systems appears to have minimal impact with light precipitation, the second one could be more interesting depending on how much moisture can advect northward. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Scattered MVFR to VFR clouds for the rest of the day. Better chance of bkn LIFR-MVFR clouds will be tonight, lowest in central WI to north-central WI. A clipper will bring some light rain, freezing rain and snow tonight, mainly along the Upper Michigan border. Nighttime cooling and low-level inversion with ongoing melting snow sets up potential for fog late tonight into Friday morning central to north-central WI. Winds will be light overall, but low-level wind shear (SW 40-50 kts veering NW to 30 kts) will develop all sites tonight into Friday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 As temperatures warm later this week into the weekend, the snowmelt will result in increasing fast flows and rising river levels. Some rivers could reach bankfull or even minor flood stage. The lack of a rapid, significant warmup points to a more gradualrise in area rivers as opposed to widespread rapid rise flooding. That being said, the flooding situation will be monitored closely given how much water is locked up in the current snowpack across the region. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.........Kurimski DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......JLA HYDROLOGY......Kurimski