FXUS63 KGRB 071747

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

1247 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Water levels will remain elevated on area rivers and streams 

  into next week due to runoff from recent rainfall. Minor 

  flooding is possible at a few locations.



- Accumulating snow is expected most areas this morning, along

  with locally hazardous travel conditions. Most locations will

  see a dusting to an inch of snow, with higher amounts to around

  2 inches in the far north.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



A cold front, currently analyzed from Kewaunee to Wautoma, 

continues to sink south early this morning. Doppler radar trends 

show the snow behind the cold front is diminishing rapidly, and 

mainly confined to northeast Wisconsin, where mid level 

frontogenesis and moisture coincide with a boost in moisture from 

Lake Superior. As the front continues to sink south, the band of 

precipitation will also sink south but encounter drier air as it 

moves farther away from Lake Superior. Therefore, the 

precipitation behind the front should be fairly meager despite the

strong dynamics given the dry airmass in place and as evidenced 

by radar trends. These factors should lead to a limited impact to 

the morning commute across the region as snowfall amounts will be 

limited to under an inch across most locations with central

Wisconsin likely to see little to no snow.



Behind the cold front, lake effect snow showers will still be 

possible across north-central Wisconsin with northerly surface 

winds. Across the rest of the area, some light convective snow 

showers or flurries will be possible as the cold air will provide 

steep low level lapse rates of 8 to 10 C/km late this morning and 

into the afternoon. Winds will increase behind the cold front 

today, with north-northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph. The 

strongest winds are expected across the Fox Valley and lakeshore 

areas, including the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory 

remains in effect for these areas through this evening until winds

subside.



High pressure will then build in across the region, with dry

weather expected tonight through Tuesday night. Another low

pressure system will track through central Illinois Wednesday and

Thursday. While the biggest impacts and precipitation are expected

to remain well to the south, the area is expected to get a

glancing blow from this system with a mix of light rain and snow

expected across the region during this period as upper level 

trough and attendant shortwaves track through the western Great 

Lakes region. 



Dry and milder conditions are expected behind this departing low

Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures this upcoming weekend

have a high chance (50-80 percent) of reaching or exceeding 60

degrees this upcoming weekend west of the Fox Valley with

southerly surface winds in place.



&&



.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025



Ceilings had risen to VFR at most locations by mid-day, except

where lake-effect snow showers were occurring in far NC WI. Radar

indicated scattered very light snow showers or flurries elsewhere

in the forecast area. North winds were gusting to 20 to 30 knots,

with the strongest gusts in eastern WI.



Skies will clear later this afternoon and evening, with clear to

partly cloudy skies anticipated through the rest of the TAF

period. The gusty winds will also diminish by early evening.

&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Kurimski

AVIATION.......Kieckbusch