FXUS63 KGRB 070725 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Water levels will remain elevated on area rivers and streams into next week due to runoff from recent rainfall. Minor flooding is possible at a few locations. - Accumulating snow is expected most areas this morning, along with locally hazardous travel conditions. Most locations will see a dusting to an inch of snow, with higher amounts to around 2 inches in the far north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A cold front, currently analyzed from Kewaunee to Wautoma, continues to sink south early this morning. Doppler radar trends show the snow behind the cold front is diminishing rapidly, and mainly confined to northeast Wisconsin, where mid level frontogenesis and moisture coincide with a boost in moisture from Lake Superior. As the front continues to sink south, the band of precipitation will also sink south but encounter drier air as it moves farther away from Lake Superior. Therefore, the precipitation behind the front should be fairly meager despite the strong dynamics given the dry airmass in place and as evidenced by radar trends. These factors should lead to a limited impact to the morning commute across the region as snowfall amounts will be limited to under an inch across most locations with central Wisconsin likely to see little to no snow. Behind the cold front, lake effect snow showers will still be possible across north-central Wisconsin with northerly surface winds. Across the rest of the area, some light convective snow showers or flurries will be possible as the cold air will provide steep low level lapse rates of 8 to 10 C/km late this morning and into the afternoon. Winds will increase behind the cold front today, with north-northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds are expected across the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas, including the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these areas through this evening until winds subside. High pressure will then build in across the region, with dry weather expected tonight through Tuesday night. Another low pressure system will track through central Illinois Wednesday and Thursday. While the biggest impacts and precipitation are expected to remain well to the south, the area is expected to get a glancing blow from this system with a mix of light rain and snow expected across the region during this period as upper level trough and attendant shortwaves track through the western Great Lakes region. Dry and milder conditions are expected behind this departing low Friday and into the weekend. Temperatures this upcoming weekend have a high chance (50-80 percent) of reaching or exceeding 60 degrees this upcoming weekend west of the Fox Valley with southerly surface winds in place. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A strong cold front will continue to sweep across the region tonight, reaching central and east-central WI within a few hours either side of 06z Monday. Precipitation should be mainly in the form of snow, however it is expected to start as rain for about an hour or two before changing over to snow. Temperatures will fall below freezing tonight, so icy spots are possible on runways overnight. CIGS will drop into the MVFR category as the snow moves across the region, then should lift back into the VFR category as the band of steadier snow moves out of the area overnight. Blustery northerly winds should be expected on Monday with gusts to around 30 knots possible, especially across eastern Wisconsin. Skies will turn clear with diminishing winds Monday evening. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski AVIATION.......Eckberg