FXUS63 KGRB 061123

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

623 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Temperatures at or below normal for the next week. Cooler nights

  will likely warrant additional Frost headlines tonight, and 

  potentially Thursday night.



- Only minor precipitation chances expected this week, with

  minimal impacts until at least Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Minimal changes to the forecast as the focus remains on overnight

lows and frost potential the next couple nights. Small precip 

chances at times, most of which will be low impact. 



Temperatures: Current Frost Advisory remains on track with 

readings at 07Z in the 33 to 37 degree range at most places 

affected. Temperatures will dip another couple degrees yet, and 

then rise into the mid 40s to low 50s today. A similar setup is 

expected tonight with no change in airmass, light to calm winds, 

and some passing clouds. Therefore, expect another Frost Advisory

will be warranted. Will let the current headline expire before 

issuing for tonight. Lows are forecast to be a few degrees warmer 

Thursday night, making conditions right on the cusp of frost 

potential. Central WI is most likely to see frost, with an ~10-20%

probability of reaching freezing. Starting Friday temperatures 

trend closer to seasonal normals, with high in the low to mid 60s

for a couple days. Readings will continue to bounce AOB normal 

into next week. 



Precip: Upper low will spin northward across Hudson Bay the next 

couple days, which will keep Wisconsin in northwest flow and send 

a few shortwaves through the area. Moisture is lacking, but there 

is enough forcing to generate a few scattered showers today, 

primarily across northern WI. A few snowflakes could mix in as 

well, but these would melt on contact. Any precip accumulations 

would be a couple hundredths at best. Slightly higher potential 

for a few showers Thursday, with NBM showing a 20-30% chance for 

0.01" of precip (anything measurable). 



A cold front moves across WI this weekend, bringing another

opportunity for light rain midday Saturday into Sunday morning. A

more organized system is currently progged to move through the

Upper Midwest during the Monday night/Tuesday time frame, bringing

potential for rain and thunder. 



In between the light rain chances, brief periods of elevated fire

weather conditions will occur due to deep mixing, low RHs,

moderate winds, and increasing fuels.



&&



.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, but plenty of

clouds are expected, mainly between 4000-8000 ft. A stray rain 

shower is possible over northern WI late this morning and 

afternoon, with even a few flakes mixing in due to cold air aloft

if the showers occur.



Light winds early this morning will turn to the west and increase

and gust to ~20 kts later this morning and afternoon, then fall 

back below 5 kts overnight into Thursday morning.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022-030-031-

035>040-045-048>050.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....KLJ

AVIATION.......Bersch