FXUS63 KGRB 040341

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

1041 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered rain showers Monday (20-40%). Best chance of thunder

  during the afternoon across east-central Wisconsin. No severe 

  is weather expected.



- Breezy conditions expected Monday. There is a 40-80% chance of

  wind gusts over 35 mph, with the strongest gusts across eastern

  Wisconsin.



- Warmer through Monday, then temperatures fall below normal for 

  the rest of the week. Risk for Frost/Freeze Headlines starts up 

  again Tuesday night.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



A cold front will continue pushing through northern Wisconsin this

afternoon, which will switch the wind direction from southwest to

westerly. CAMs models continue to show isolated showers and

thunderstorms popping up across the far northeastern portion of

the CWA this afternoon as the cold front moves through the area,

with a reservoir of 200-400 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. Gusty

winds of 20 to 30 mph will continue through early this evening

until the atmosphere decouples.



Another cold front is slated to move through the area on Monday.

Conditions ahead of the front will be warm and breezy, with highs

over 70 for all but north-central Wisconsin and wind gusts over 

35 mph, especially across eastern Wisconsin. Despite the front 

pushing into the warmer regime, marginally steep mid-level lapse 

rates and overall dry airmass lead to instability that is not all 

that robust with a narrow ribbon of MLCAPEs around 500 J/kg. That

being said, the chance for thunder is still on the table since the

front tracks through the area around peak heating, maximizing the

available instability that is available. No severe weather or 

heavy rain is expected; however, given the strong winds aloft and

steeper low-level lapse rates, there could be a stronger storm

that produces isolated wind gusts of 40-50 mph.



Behind this cold front, cooler conditions are expected across the

region for the rest of the week as temperatures fall below normal

values for this time of year. The overall pattern for the rest of

the week is expected to mainly be dry; however, a few showers 

could pop up at times as the cooler air aloft creates steep low 

level lapse rates. There is a better signal for showers on 

Thursday as a vigorous shortwave is progged to drop southeast 

through the upper trough across the Great Lakes. The cooler 

temperatures mean the frost/freeze potential will return beginning

Tuesday night and likely will last through at least Thursday 

night, if not Friday night.



Temperatures bounce back to at or above normal next weekend as

warmer ridge over the western CONUS begins to make shift toward

the Plains and the midwest.



&&



.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



Behind a cold front, mostly clear skies prevail across the region

late this evening. Mid and high clouds will return and lower late

tonight.



LLWS is expected to develop by 07z at KRHI and after 11z at the

other terminals, then diminish as winds mix down 14-15z. Surface 

winds will then gust to 25-30 knots out of the southwest until

early Monday evening.



Another cold front will shift over the area from northwest to

southeast late Monday morning through the afternoon. Ahead of the

front, shower coverage is looking sparse and confidence remains 

low. However, there seems to be sufficient saturation for a prob30

group at KRHI on Monday afternoon. Decided to maintain the dry

forecast at the other terminals. Will continue to monitor trends 

over east- central WI for a shower addition in later taf cycles.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Kurimski

AVIATION.......MPC