FXUS63 KGRB 031123

AFDGRB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

523 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Next chance for widespread light snow/wintry precip arrives 

  Thursday morning, lasting through Friday morning. Greatest 

  chances for 1 inch of snow are across northern Vilas and along 

  the Door Peninsula.



- Temperatures to be above normal throughout the week, with

  central Wisconsin seeing a chance at above freezing highs on

  Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



High pressure influence to our north continues to be prevalent 

early this morning, with only a lake effect stratus deck parked 

over the northern half of the forecast area. Combination of high 

pressure under weak ridging then continues to result in dry 

conditions and near normal temperatures through at least 

Wednesday.



Precip chances... Synoptic pattern begins to re-amplify toward 

the end of the week as low pressure deepens over the Hudson Bay,

bringing our next chances for light snow or a wintry mix. Trends

seem to be holding steady as most ensembles take the track of the

clipper further north, though the brief dry spell is still likely

to come to an end for most. First round of isentropically-forced 

precip looks to develop along the leading edge of a swath of WAA 

Thursday morning, bringing a short-lived round of light snow

area-wide. Potential exists for light rain to mix in with snow at

times across central Wisconsin where surface temperatures will 

read at/near freezing, though suspect snow will be the dominant 

p-type due to the shallow nature of the warmer near-surface layer.

Cold FROPA then occurs Friday morning, bringing with it a second 

round of snow mainly to the lake effect belts. LREF grand 

ensemble continues to show the greatest chance for 1 inch of snow 

(30 to 50%) over northern Vilas and along the Door Peninsula as 

winds veer to northwesterly. Could see a scenario in which some 

freezing drizzle mixes in Friday morning due to a shallow 

supercooled moist layer, though this will depend on efficiency of 

ice production. For the time being, have limited NBM ZR wx type to

ZL. Winds also ramp up on Friday as the pressure gradient 

tightens up along the front, with surface gusts to 25 mph possible

Friday afternoon within deeper mixing. 



Temperatures... Near normal temperatures mainly in the 20s prevail

throughout the week, with some locations across central Wisconsin

even seeing a chance at above freezing highs on Thursday. A quick  

shot of colder air arrives behind the passage of the clipper on

Saturday, though should moderate back to above normal heading into

the next work week.



&&



.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance

Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



MVFR stratus continues to make a slow push toward the east-central

Wisconsin TAF sites early this morning, with any flurries 

remaining north of RHI. Downsloping winds should then help 

scatter out the low clouds from south to north throughout the day,

though this may take some time to occur. SCT to BKN mid clouds 

then fill back in from the west toward the end of the TAF period, 

though there may be a window in which all terminals see VFR 

conditions late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be 

light and predominantly out of the northwest.



&&



.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION.....Goodin

AVIATION.......Goodin