FXUS63 KGLD 240501

AFDGLD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Goodland KS

1101 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Low chances and for showers and storms today and tomorrow,

  favoring eastern and south portions of the area in NW Kansas.



- Areas of fog possible this morning, mainly for NW Kansas. Fog

  redeveloping Friday night through Saturday morning, possibly 

  dense and more widespread.

 

- Another chance for showers Sunday night and Monday.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2025



A slow moving upper low will bring a chance for showers and

isolated thunderstorms beginning this evening and continuing

through Saturday in several waves. In addition to the

precipitation chances, fog will be the main impact from this

system. Expecting the fog to develop late tonight south of

Interstate 70 in northwest Kansas and continue through a good

part of Saturday morning before dissipating around 18z. The fog

will then redevelop Friday evening first over eastern areas,

then spreading west over the remaining area overnight and

persisting well into Saturday morning. The fog may be dense and

widespread Friday night/Saturday morning. First wave of

precipitation will move in from the southwest this evening, with

possibly a few isolated thunderstorms due to MUCAPE of a couple

hundred joules, though it is less impressive than yesterday.

MUCAPE decreases to near zero after 06z with this first round

moving off the the east overnight. Precipitation chances will be

low during the day on Friday with the upper low just entering

southeast Colorado. Global models show a few showers possible

but CAMs are dry. The upper low meanders into southwest Kansas

Friday night and Saturday and tries to reorganize. A few showers

may try to rotate into the area from the south during this time.

The low finally moves into southeast Kansas Saturday night 

ending any precipitation chances. Due to the precipitation, 

clouds and fog, the diurnal temperature range will be low. 

Expecting lows tonight in the 40s and highs on Friday in the 

50s, then dropping into the 40s again tomorrow night and highs 

on Saturday mainly staying in the 50s again depending on how 

long the fog/clouds linger into the afternoon. Some breaks in 

the afternoon could result in low to mid 60s for highs, mainly 

in Colorado. 



Sunday looks to be dry during the day with shortwave ridging

between systems. May see a little afternoon sun with high sin

the low to mid 60s. Next system approaches from the northwest

Sunday night with a chance for showers. Lows will be in the 40s.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2025



The upper trough axis will be moving through on Monday with

scattered shower chances, mainly in the morning. Models a little

slower moving the associated cold front through, which now looks

to occur Monday night with a period of breezy to windy

conditions through Tuesday morning. An upper low will develop

near Omaha and into Missouri by Tuesday night, leaving a dry

northerly flow over the central plains. Temperatures will cool

slightly from the 60s on Monday to the 50s on Tuesday. Next

chance for a frost or freeze will occur Tuesday night through

Wednesday morning, but models only suggesting lower 30s so

confidence in a hard freeze is low for the time being. Upper

ridging returns for Wednesday with dry conditions and seasonably

cool temperatures in the 50s. Towards the end of the week, 

seeing a ridge build into the northern and Canadian Rockies and 

troughing downstream into the northern plains and Great Lakes. 

This should result in dry conditions and temperatures continuing

near to slightly below normal.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 23 2025



For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the early 

morning, though we continue to monitor for lower clouds developing 

over either terminal. The low pressure that has been forecast to 

bring moisture into the area has moved a bit further southeast. With 

this, the cut-off for low clouds and maybe some fog is right over or 

just east of the terminals this morning. While the current forecast 

keeps ceilings above 3000ft, look for updates and be prepared for 

changing or varying conditions. Chances look to be better for low 

clouds and ceilings after 00Z Saturday, especially for KMCK. Both 

ceilings and visibility could approach airport minimums. Winds 

should be light and variable through the first 12 hours, and then 

become more steady from the northeast and east around 5-10 kts.



&&



.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

CO...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...024

LONG TERM...024

AVIATION...KAK