FXUS63 KGID 240552 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer nights ahead, next chance for frost/freeze not until Oct 29-30 or later. Lows generally in the 40s through Monday night. - Increasing clouds tonight and then cool and cloudy through the weekend with highs only in the 50s to around 60 at best. Dry to maybe a few sprinkles in the Tri-Cities, but at least some showers and thunderstorms (30-60% chance) mainly across north central Kansas (<0.25"). - An elongated open trough will push through the area Sunday night into Monday bringing another chance for generally light rain (<0.25") and breezy northwest winds (>20kts). Cooler highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected to continue through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Tonight through Friday... Southeasterly winds will bring increasing low level moisture with higher dewpoints (40s) back into the area late tonight through Friday. We'll see clouds increase and lower in height from south to north beginning late tonight. Low IFR ceilings become increasingly likely during the day on Friday and expect little if any sun with thick low clouds keeping temperatures down in the lower to middle 50s on Friday. The upper low track across Oklahoma is too far south for our area to see much rainfall and most Nebraska areas will remain dry to perhaps see just a few sprinkles or maybe even a light drizzle. Our Kansas zones stand the best chance at seeing light rainfall accumulations, but still likely less than 0.25". It will be warmer tonight with the increasing clouds. Saturday and Sunday... Confidence is high in a cool (50s to around 60) and cloudy weekend. There will be a lot of cloud cover with NBM indicating mostly cloudy to cloudy skies all weekend. Clouds will keep overnight lows up, so mainly 40s for lows and no frost the next several days. The NBM increased rain chances (20-30%) on Saturday across our southeastern zones, but expect most areas will remain dry and even these small rain chances may be a bit overdone. Rainfall if anything would likely be less than 0.10" inches and confined to southeastern zones. Monday through Thursday... The next upper trough will track southeast out of Montana and the Dakotas and bring a quick shot (40-50%) at some light rain (<0.25") on Monday. There is a fair amount of uncertainty during this period, with NBM indicating a fairly big window for highs anywhere from the mid 50s to lower 60s. We do have pretty good confidence in an upper trough moving through with breezy northwesterly winds behind that trough Monday and Tuesday. We could be talking about additional frosty nights by Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday as drier air moves back into the region allowing for greater diurnal temperature swings. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Significant weather: Deteriorating conditions today, LIFR likely by Friday evening. BKN CIGs around 5k ft are expected through dawn before lowering to MVFR by midday, then IFR this afternoon. Numerical model and conceptual model guidance both suggest a high likelihood () for LIFR CIGs as early as 01-03Z Fri that would likely persist all night and even into much of Sat AM. VSBYs are a bit more uncertain, but would think at least MVFR to IFR would be possible after sunset Fri eve. Some model guidance suggests the moist Erly upslope flow could even support dense (LIFR) fog Fri night into Sat AM. Kept the TAFs at IFR, for now, towards the end of the valid period. Confidence is medium to high. Winds will be SE to ESE for the entire period, 8-11kt through the daytime, then slightly weaker at 5-8kt for Fri eve. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Thies