FXUS63 KGID 192338

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

638 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Isolated thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon,

  primarily south of KS/NE state line...although a rogue storm

  cannot be entirely ruled out further north. The strongest

  storms could produce gusts over 50 MPH. 



- Spotty showers/storms are possible again Wednesday afternoon,

  although most areas are expected to remain dry and severe 

  weather is not expected.



- Additional thunderstorm chances (10-30%) arrive late Thursday

  night into Friday morning, with better chances (30-60%) for 

  the entire area Friday night into Saturday morning. 



- Noticably cooler weather arrives early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Scattered thunderstorms persist over central and eastern Kansas

in response to a remnant MCV. Radar trends and latest CAM 

guidance indicate that isolated to widely scattered storms could

redevelop northward into our area. This will occur primarily in

northern KS, although there are some updrafts attempting to 

organize over Furnas county, and some CAMs show development as 

far north as Ord. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but 

downburst winds in the 50-60 MPH range are possible in the 

weakly-sheared environment. 



Tonight, there is potential for another round of fog to develop

as light/variable winds turn to the east by sunrise. That said,

the latest HRRR (which handled the Tuesday AM fog pretty well) 

is not showing much more than localized valley fog. 



Wednesday will be another fairly warm and muggy day, although 

winds may be a touch stronger to provide a little relief from 

heat index values in the high 90s. The warm/moist airmass may 

allow for some diurnally-driven thunderstorms Wednesday 

afternoon, but weak shear should keep storms disorganized and 

short-lived. 



The daytime on Thursday should be warm and dry with strong 

ridging over the central and western CONUS. A shortwave pushing 

into the northern Plains may allow a few storms to creep into 

northern parts of our area late Thursday night into Friday 

morning. 



Exact details for Friday remain uncertain, but we will be 

looking for scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in 

the late afternoon/evening/overnight along a stalled frontal 

boundary. For now, this appears to be our most organized chance 

for rain/thunderstorms across the area. The severe risk does not

look particularly concerning at this time (5% per CSU-MLP), but

this will be highly dependent on mesoscale features in the near

term.



Saturday trends cooler behind this front. The daytime and early

evening appear to be mostly dry, but some storms could roll in 

from the high Plains late Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in a 

continued cool pattern (and off/on precip chances) as we begin 

next week. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to only 

reach the 70s...only slightly warmer than our LOW temperatures 

Tuesday morning.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:



Patchy fog is possible during the early morning hours on

Wednesday. There remains uncertainty on how widespread the fog

will be as well as how much it will impact the TAF sites (if at

all). Have maintained a 5SM BR group during the time when fog is

most likely to develop. If fog develops/impacts the TAF sites, 

IFR/LIFR conditions are possible but confidence is too low to

include in the TAF at this time. Any lingering fog is expected 

to clear during the mid- morning hours on Wednesday as 

visibilities/ceilings improve. SCT cumulus around 030 is favored

to develop during the afternoon hours on Wednesday but MVFR 

ceilings are not expected at this time.





&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Mangels

AVIATION...Davis