FXUS63 KGID 191947 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon, primarily south of KS/NE state line...although a rogue storm cannot be entirely ruled out further north. The strongest storms could produce gusts over 50 MPH. - Spotty showers/storms are possible again Wednesday afternoon, although most areas are expected to remain dry and severe weather is not expected. - Additional thunderstorm chances (10-30%) arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning, with better chances (30-60%) for the entire area Friday night into Saturday morning. - Noticably cooler weather arrives early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Scattered thunderstorms persist over central and eastern Kansas in response to a remnant MCV. Radar trends and latest CAM guidance indicate that isolated to widely scattered storms could redevelop northward into our area. This will occur primarily in northern KS, although there are some updrafts attempting to organize over Furnas county, and some CAMs show development as far north as Ord. The overall severe threat is fairly low, but downburst winds in the 50-60 MPH range are possible in the weakly-sheared environment. Tonight, there is potential for another round of fog to develop as light/variable winds turn to the east by sunrise. That said, the latest HRRR (which handled the Tuesday AM fog pretty well) is not showing much more than localized valley fog. Wednesday will be another fairly warm and muggy day, although winds may be a touch stronger to provide a little relief from heat index values in the high 90s. The warm/moist airmass may allow for some diurnally-driven thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but weak shear should keep storms disorganized and short-lived. The daytime on Thursday should be warm and dry with strong ridging over the central and western CONUS. A shortwave pushing into the northern Plains may allow a few storms to creep into northern parts of our area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Exact details for Friday remain uncertain, but we will be looking for scattered showers and thunderstorms to redevelop in the late afternoon/evening/overnight along a stalled frontal boundary. For now, this appears to be our most organized chance for rain/thunderstorms across the area. The severe risk does not look particularly concerning at this time (5% per CSU-MLP), but this will be highly dependent on mesoscale features in the near term. Saturday trends cooler behind this front. The daytime and early evening appear to be mostly dry, but some storms could roll in from the high Plains late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in a continued cool pattern (and off/on precip chances) as we begin next week. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to only reach the 70s...only slightly warmer than our LOW temperatures Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Rest of today: Should remain VFR with a fair amount of SCT cumulus between 2500ft and 4500ft. There's a non-zero chance for an isolated thunderstorm late afternoon into early evening, but chances not high enough to warrant even a PROB30 attm. Winds will remain light and variable. Tonight into Wed AM: Main concern is the potential for fog and/or IFR/LIFR CIGs, similar to this morning, to redevelop after midnight. Winds will remain very light or calm, and with clear skies and continued high amounts of near surface moisture, seems to be a matter of when and how bad, not if. Maintained MVFR VSBYs for GRI, but didintroduce some IFR VSBYs at EAR. Both TAFs could trend worse, though, as we get closer, including on CIGs, as well. Would expect to see the usual gradual improvement in the 14-16Z time frame. Confidence: Medium. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Thies