FXUS63 KGID 191745

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy morning fog, some of which could be dense, will linger

  across portions of the area through around 10 AM CDT.



- Hot and humid conditions conditions return again this 

  afternoon, with heat index values reaching 100 degrees across 

  parts of the local area (focused on north central Kansas).



- A couple spotty (non-severe) thunderstorm chances

  today/tonight, with mostly dry conditions Wednesday and

  Thursday (still warm, but a bit more seasonal with highs

  mostly in the 80s to near 90).



- Cooler (and occasionally unsettled) weather expected for the

  upcoming weekend through early next week, with the best

  chances for any thunderstorm activity coming during the

  evening/overnight hours each day.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



A much quieter night across the region than expected 24 hours

ago. A few showers and thunderstorms impacted mainly portions of

north central Kansas during the overnight hours, with this 

activity since diminishing early this morning. Some high clouds 

can be seen on satellite streaming across the local area, but 

they area thinning out early this morning, allowing for some 

patchy fog development across the region. While so far the fog 

has been fairly light and spotty, expect the potential for some 

dense ground fog through the early morning hours...with 

visibilities potentially falling below 1/2 mile in spots. 



For the remainder of today, expect some very spotty thunderstorm

chances to continue through the afternoon and early evening

hours, with models focusing the best potential across portions

of north central Kansas and extreme south central Nebraska later

today. With a lack of a notable forcing mechanism and very weak

shear, severe weather is not anticipated and the vast majority

of the local area will likely not see any thunderstorm activity.



As skies then clear tonight, expect the potential repeat of fog

development as SREF probs are indicating similar chances for fog

formation again early Wednesday morning, albeit winds will be

more east southeasterly (upslope), which could enhance fog

development during the overnight hours again tonight. 



Slightly (1-3 degrees) cooler weather is then anticipated for 

Wednesday, which could help keep afternoon heat indices in the 

90s for the majority of the area, but it will still be hot, as 

very light winds will not help out with the heat. Some CAMS, 

such as the HRRR, are indicating the potential for a couple pop 

up type showers/thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon along our 

border with OAX, and coordinated with our neighbors to add some 

small pops along and east of the highway 81 corridor Tuesday 

afternoon.



Continued light winds, warm temperatures, and minimal 

thunderstorm chances are expected for the daytime hours

Thursday, before the upper level flow pattern begins to shift

and eventually become more northwesterly for a prolonged period

of time beginning Friday. This should usher in more noticably

cooler weather over the upcoming weekend along with potentially

a bit more unsettled conditions, with the focus of any shower or

thunderstorm activity likely coming during the evening and

overnight hours each day. Given the warm stretch of late, the

forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s Sunday-Tuesday will

likely feel quite nice.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:



Rest of today: Should remain VFR with a fair amount of SCT

cumulus between 2500ft and 4500ft. There's a non-zero chance for

an isolated thunderstorm late afternoon into early evening, but

chances not high enough to warrant even a PROB30 attm. Winds

will remain light and variable.



Tonight into Wed AM: Main concern is the potential for fog

and/or IFR/LIFR CIGs, similar to this morning, to redevelop

after midnight. Winds will remain very light or calm, and with

clear skies and continued high amounts of near surface moisture,

seems to be a matter of when and how bad, not if. Maintained

MVFR VSBYs for GRI, but did introduce some IFR VSBYs at EAR.

Both TAFs could trend worse, though, as we get closer, including

on CIGs, as well. Would expect to see the usual gradual

improvement in the 14-16Z time frame. Confidence: Medium.



&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Rossi

AVIATION...Thies