FXUS63 KGID 060456

AFDGID



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hastings NE

1156 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s today and

  Wednesday with rain showers across portions of the area.

  Temperatures will be warmer beginning Thursday. 



- There are frost/freeze concerns Wednesday night into Thursday

  morning across much of the area but higher winds may be a

  hindering factor. 



- Elevated to near critical fire weather may develop Thursday, 

  Friday, and Saturday across portions of the area.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 216 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



An upper low is centered north of the Great Lakes over Canada with 

an associated upper trough extending southwest. There is another 

upper low centered over Southern California which is attached to the 

previously mentioned upper trough. Nebraska and Kansas are under the 

upper trough with rain showers moving across portions of the region. 

A surface high along with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are across 

the area. These conditions will keep temperatures cooler today with 

highs mostly in the 50s. Showers may continue across portions of the 

area tonight with the highest chances in north central Kansas 

(portions of the area up to around 90% chance). Low temperatures 

tonight are expected to range from the low 30s to low 40s. Frost 

potential is low (20% or less) tonight despite areas reaching the 

low to mid 30s due to drier air expected to be in place as well as 

cloud cover. 



The cooler airmass will still be in place on Wednesday with high 

temperatures fairly similar to today. Rain showers will still be 

possible (15% to 70% chance) on Wednesday due to increased lift from 

the upper trough still being over the region. Rain showers are 

expected to be out of the area by Wednesday night with clearing 

skies and temperatures dropping into the 30s (mostly low to mid 

30s). There will be increased (around 40% to 50%) frost and freeze 

concerns for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The hindering factor 

will be increased wind speeds which may result in slightly higher 

temperatures and/or prevent frost from developing. 



The cooler airmass will depart the area by Thursday with winds 

increasing out of the southwest to west Thursday afternoon. 

Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 70s on Thursday. 

Heightened fire weather concerns are expected on Thursday with wind 

gusts getting up to near/around 20 MPH and minimum humidity values 

generally between 15% and 25% across the whole area. Overnight lows 

will be warmer beginning Thursday night/Friday morning with 

temperatures mostly in the 40s. Winds across the area will be in the 

process of transitioning to the northwest Thursday night/Friday 

morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest to north Friday 

morning and will decrease later in the day. High temperatures are 

again expected to be in the 70s. There are some concerns for fire 

weather on Friday due to lingering wind gusts in the afternoon and 

minimum humidity values possibly getting down to around 20% across 

west/northwest portions of the area. 



A cold front will move southward towards south central and central 

Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday. In advance of the 

front, temperatures are expected to warm up to the 70s and 80s. 

There is some fire weather concern on Saturday with wind gusts up to 

20 to 30 MPH and humidity down to around 25% across western and 

southern portions of the area. If the front speeds up, then 

temperatures will not be as warm. Showers and thunderstorms may 

develop and move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening in 

association with the cold front (15% to 50% chance). Cooler 

temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s. 

Temperatures are then expected to rebound into the upper 70s to mid 

80s on Monday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



For KGRI/KEAR Airports:



VFR conditions expected through TAF period. BKN-OVC ceilings

around 10,000ft continue through the late morning hours, with

ceilings becoming SCT during the afternoon. Light and variable

winds overnight become northerly during the mid-late morning

hours, increasing to around 8-10kts. Winds shift to the

west during the afternoon, and become southwesterly after

sunset. 



&&



.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...None.

KS...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Schuldt

AVIATION...Davis