FXUS63 KFSD 250807

AFDFSD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

307 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy southeasterly winds over the weekend may lead to some

  locally elevated fire weather concerns. However, cloud cover

  and higher dew points should temper widespread elevated and

  any near critical conditions.

 

- Rain chances return on Monday and Tuesday. While exact 

  amounts are uncertain, ensemble guidance continue to show 

  generally moderate probabilities (30-60%) of half an inch or 

  more of rain.



- Seasonable temperatures continue through next week with highs

  mainly in the 50s and lower 60s.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



NOW THROUGH SUNDAY: Low clouds expanding over the area this morning 

kept temperatures on the mild side, still in the upper 40s to mid 

50s through 3 AM CDT. Have seen a few very isolated sprinkles, and 

can't rule out a few more through mid morning before stratus begins 

to lift.



Mid and upper level ridging continues today, although we'll likely 

see more clouds than sun as we see southerly low level flow and the 

cloud shield from the mid/upper level low spinning off to our south. 

These lower clouds should moderate temperatures a touch - with highs 

in the upper 50s to mid 60s. South to southeasterly winds gust 

around 20-25 mph, with some higher gusts to 30 mph west of the James 

River possible.



Ridge moves to the east Sunday as the next trough begins to eject 

out of the Rockies. Tightening surface pressure gradient leads to 

stronger southerly winds, and could see some gusts to 40 mph west of 

the James River during the afternoon hours. Elevated fire danger is 

expected especially west of I-29 due to strong winds. However, 

minimum humidity values at least 40-60% temper more widespread and 

critical fire danger. Highs on Sunday should be a bit warmer, into 

the lower and mid 60s, although could shake out to be a couple 

degrees cooler if cloud cover is more prevalent. 



SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK: Trough ejecting out of the Rockies 

could lead to some isolated showers Sunday night; however, more 

widespread rain chances are expected with the main mid/upper level 

trough and surface low moving through the northern Plains Monday and 

Tuesday. Guidance continues to trend upward with pops, likely driven 

by the Canadian which brings a broad, inverted surface trough to the 

forecast area versus a more defined surface low tracking south of 

our area. Ensemble probabilities of over 0.10" of rain during this 

time are high (over 80%) although there is still some disagreement 

in the location and timing of the highest probability. GFS ensemble 

is now the highest with the potential of 0.50" or more - up to 70% 

west of the James - while the Canadian and ECMWF ensembles are 

closer to 30-50%. 



Temperatures through the early part of the week remain near seasonal 

averages with highs in the lower to mid 50s, and lows in the 30s. 

Breezy conditions are expected, with gusts at times around 30-35 

mph. 



MID-LATE NEXT WEEK: Models continue to diverge toward the middle and 

end of next week. All guidance shows a low pressure/trough over the 

eastern US with another wave/trough on its heels late week. This 

pattern could lead to occasional lower end precipitation chances but 

confidence is low on the details given model spread. Temperatures 

should remain near seasonal averages with periodic breezy winds. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will transition to mostly MVFR

conditions this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery,

areas of VFR to MVFR stratus with isolated pockets of sprinkles

continues to lift northwards across the area this evening. 

Expect this lower cloud base to continue to sit over most areas

well into Saturday before gradually lifting leading to a 

prolonged of MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, could see a few isolated

sprinkles mainly east of I-29 through the daybreak on Saturday 

with limited accumulations. With this in mind, decided to leave 

any mention of it out of the TAF since it won't lead to any 

aviation concerns. Lastly, breezy southerly to southeasterly 

winds will gradually decrease this evening eventually becoming 

light southerly winds into Saturday to end the TAF period.



&&



.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SG

AVIATION...05