FXUS63 KFSD 241123

AFDFSD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

623 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- One last morning of frost along and east of I-29. Temperatures

  warm back to above average through the weekend.



- Gusty southerly winds lead to areas of elevated fire danger

  over the weekend. Critical fire danger is not expected due to

  high humidity levels.



- The next widespread chance for rain arrives by next Monday

  through Tuesday. Ensembles continue to show moderate

  probabilities (30-50%) of rain totals exceeding half an inch.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



NOW THROUGH SUNDAY: One more cold and frosty morning, mainly east of 

I-29. Temperatures through 3 AM CDT this morning are in the mid 20s 

to lower 30s east of I-29 (coldest where winds are calm) to the 

upper 30s and 40s west of the James. For the rest of today, we'll 

warm up into the lower/mid 60s with breezy southerly winds around 20-

25 mph. 



CAMs show some isolated to scattered showers this evening into 

tonight along and south of I-90 on the leading edge of some WAA and 

very weak vorticity moving north; however, there isn't much 

appreciable forcing to work with so kept the forecast dry for now. 

Do expect an increase in cloud cover through from south to north. 

Sprinkles to light showers are possible early Saturday morning 

across southwestern MN as the northern wave moves southeast, but 

limited chances to 15% or less given low confidence. 



Outside of the aforementioned lower end rain chances, this period 

remains dry with highs in the 50s and 60s (near to above seasonal 

averages) thanks to weak ridging overhead. Southerly winds increase 

with a tightening surface pressure gradient. Strongest winds will be 

on Sunday, with gusts to 35 mph. These stronger winds will lead to 

areas of elevated fire concerns, but increasing humidity with the 

southerly flow tempers widespread and critical fire danger. 

Seasonal lows in the 40s.



SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY NEXT WEEK: Pattern shifts through the early part 

of next week. We'll see a trough axis at mid/upper levels move into 

the northern Plains Monday, before a stronger low pressure develops 

over the eastern US. Ridging builds across the western CONUS, which 

keeps us into the northwesterly flow regime through at least Tuesday 

night. A surface cold front moves through sometime Tuesday. Still 

some details to work out, as deterministic guidance still varies 

quite a bit (especially the 24.00z Canadian) in the timing/evolution 

of this pattern shift. 



This pattern shift brings low end rain chances to the region, as 

early as Sunday night with the first push of WAA and weak PVA. 

However, more widespread and higher rain chances are favored Monday 

through Tuesday as the main trough axis moves east. Will maintain 

the NBM given the uncertainty so expect further refinement to the 

timing and coverage of the rain chances. GFS/ECMWF ensemble guidance 

continues to show around a 30-50% chance of a half an inch or more 

of rain during this time, with the Canadian ensemble probabilities 

running a bit higher (up to 70%). All ensemble guidance show at 

least an 80% chance of much of the area seeing 0.10" or more of 

rain, with still some variance in the timing/location. Temperatures 

remain near to above average.



MID/LATE NEXT WEEK: Models diverge even more toward the end of the 

forecast period. A short lived mid and upper level ridge moves 

across the northern Plains for the middle of the week, with another 

low pressure/trough poised to move into the region sometime late 

week. No changes planned from the NBM given the wide range of 

solutions. Overall, temperatures near to above normal are expected 

(highs predominantly in the 50s and lows in the in the 30s to 40s). 

Periodically breezy conditions expected, with mostly dry conditions 

favored.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Mid clouds have expanded along portions of the MO River Valley

this morning and these should continue to expand northeast

through the day. VFR conditions prevail through much of the

period, with MVFR to IFR stratus expanding south to north late

this evening through tonight. 



Winds increase this morning, becoming southerly with gusts

around 20-25 knots, strongest north of I-90. Winds taper down

after sunset.



&&



.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SG

AVIATION...SG