FXUS63 KFSD 040157

AFDFSD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

857 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Additional shower and very isolated thunderstorm chances are 

  possible Monday afternoon into Monday night. If a storm can 

  develop, wind gusts to around 50 mph will be possible. The 

  better chances will be south of Highway 18.



- After seasonal temperatures into Monday, cooler than normal 

  temperatures return midweek. Areas of early morning frost or 

  near- freezing temperatures are possible by early Wednesday 

  and Thursday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 855 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



The forecast tonight remains on track. Southwesterly winds look

to increase near and after midnight mainly along the Highway 14

corridor of eastern and central South Dakota into the higher 

elevations of the Buffalo Ridge as a low pressure system deepens

over western Ontario. Gusts in these locations tonight will push

towards 25 mph, locally to around 30 mph in the Buffalo Ridge. 

This system will also bring a cold front through our area during

the daytime morning hours Monday, turning winds northwesterly. 

Strong cold air advection behind the front will lead to another 

increase in winds on Monday, this time across the entire area. 

Winds will generally gust to 30 to 35 mph by Monday afternoon, 

strongest west of I-29. 



Guidance continues to show some showers moving through the area

behind the front as some mid-level vorticity rounds the base of

the trough. A dry sub-cloud layer will keep most of this 

activity as sprinkles, but there does appear to be enough lift 

in the DGZ to allow for some light showers from time to time. 

And with some instability in parts of northwest Iowa, a rumble 

of thunder is also possible. With the dry air, sprinkles/showers

could mix down a 40 mph gust, while a thundershower, if one 

develops, could bring down a very isolated 50 mph gust to the 

surface.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



Northwest winds will gradually diminish through the afternoon

and turn more westerly this evening. Some very localized 

elevated fire weather conditions are expected where some of the 

warm season grasses remain fairly cured.



A broad trough to the north will settle south tonight into Monday. 

This will initially turn winds to the west and southwest tonight, 

before turning north on Monday morning.  For the most part this will 

be a dry front, but some mid level moisture and very weak 

instability may allow for a light shower. Otherwise, in the 

afternoon in mainly northwest IA some weak instability could allow 

for an isolated shower or thunderstorm, with no severe weather 

expected. As with last nights showers some gusty winds will be 

possible with any showers.



The main changes with this incoming front will be cooler, below 

normal temperatures. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 

50s, with morning lows Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mostly in the 

30s. Areas north of I-90 could see some frost and freezing 

temperatures all 3 mornings while areas near and south of I-90 will 

see the better chances for frost and freezing temperatures on 

Wednesday and Thursday mornings.



Otherwise, northwest flow aloft will be in place Wednesday into the 

next weekend which suggests that even if we can get a few waves to 

move through the area, moisture and instability will be a bit 

lacking. Temperatures Thursday into the weekend do climb back to 

around or a bit above normal with highs mostly in the mid 60s to 

lower 70s. Very little consistency in the model output for these 

weak waves so confidence on any isolated to scattered showers is 

pretty low.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will begin

turning southwesterly through the evening ahead of a cold 

frontal passage. Once this cold front moves through the area 

over the course of Monday morning, winds will turn northwesterly

and increase. Wind gusts will peak around 30 to locally 35 kts 

Monday afternoon, strongest west of I-29. A few spotty 

showers/sprinkles will be possible mainly Monday afternoon and 

evening. Lastly, LLWS concerns will develop briefly near and 

north of I-90 as the nocturnal low level jet begins to kick in 

tonight.



&&



.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.

NE...None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Samet

DISCUSSION...08

AVIATION...Samet