FXUS63 KFGF 241508 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1008 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with temperatures warming up above average for the weekend, then more wet conditions early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The upper low continues to sag southeast this morning now centered near Glenora, MB with low stratus prevalent across northwest MN on it SE flank. Seeing a few echos on radar up in Pembina county but certainly nothing reaching the ground yet. As the low dips further SE into MN expect showers this afternoon between the Thief River Falls to Baudette corridor and points to the southeast through sunset. UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Brief patchy fog at Bemidji but didnt last long. Band of high/mid clouds moving east from southeast Manitoba into north central MN at 11z. Otherwise a small patch of clouds upstream associated with vorticity maxima is moving southeast. NBM/Conshort sky coverage seems higher than what the current system has, so its possible it may be too cloudy this aftn as upper low moves southeast thru NE ND into MN. No changes made to grids this go around other than to auto populate with latest NBM/obs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure is over central Minnesota early this morning. Southeast wind 5 to 15 kts is over E ND, western MN and this is preventing temps from falling and fog from forming. Light winds/calm conditions Baudette to Wadena with temps in the low 20s and ground fog is present in isolated areas around Bemidji and may develop at a few other areas in that BDE-BJI-PKD area through sunrise. Interesting feature of the day today is a compact but well defined upper low that is near Yorkton SK at 08z It will move southeast into NE ND and be near Detroit Lakes by late today. An area of mid level moisture with this wave, mostly just east of the circulation, and soundings do show a period of enough saturation around 700 mb for possible sprinkles, likely virga showers. Sub cloud layer airmass is quite dry. NBM did throw in some low chances for showers around BJI/PKD late this aftn/early evening with increasing chances of showers as it moves more toward the Twin Cities Friday overnight. Insertion of these low pops (20s) seems reasonable for now. Later shifts may need to expand some sprinkle mention if deemed necessary. Saturday and Sunday will see warmer airmass move in with gusty south winds. Highs though a tad cooler than was forecast a few days ago but still upper 50s to mid 60s north to south, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. For Sunday night into Tuesday...uncertainty remains in regards to how much rainfall will occur and in what location does a rain band set up as an upper wave from the Pac NW moves east and then northeast over the Dakotas into Manitoba. Consistency in the models has been poor, so low confidence in amounts, but high confidence that some rain will occur over the majority of the fcst area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR thru the period. Some clouds to start around Bemidji to Baudette and another batch moving southeast with 500 mb low from SW Manitoba into northeast ND and into MN midday and afternoon. But cloud bases look to be higher end, AOA 8kft agl. Winds south- southeast 10-15kts sustained, a few gusts 20 kts this morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle