FXUS63 KFGF 240307 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1007 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry with temperatures warming up above average for the weekend, then more wet conditions early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1006 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Besides some passing high cirrus most locations remain clear, and with surface high pressure yet to slide out of our area locations in our east are dropping faster than previous forecast indicated. Eventually higher clouds should increase, but ultimately won't play much of a role in limiting cooling. Instead the moderating airmass as southerly flow is building west to east, and increasing southeast winds (5-10kt) will help temps level off. The mixing combined with much drier air off the surface should continue to limit any fog potential tonight, and NBM, along with, short range CAMs do no show a signal for fog impacts in our CWA tonight. For this update, I made adjustment to temp trends/overnight lows and sky trends, otherwise the forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Skies are clear across our CWA, with a few areas of higher level cirrus approaching from central MN. Surface ridge is in place, and while there is a window for potential radiational fog development, the eventual increase in SE BL winds and much drier air advecting in to the region off the surface should limit coverage/impacts compared to earlier this morning. Latest guidance shows no fog impacts in our CWA, so there isn't a trend favorable for fog impacts/shift in messaging. Previous forecast is on track, and the main adjustments were to near term trends in sky/temps. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Brief upper ridging will build in before a tightly wrapped upper low drops into southern Manitoba tonight. Surface ridging currently over western MN will move off into MN/WI, allowing winds to steady out of the southeast and start to pick up later tonight. Biggest question for the short term is if we get more radiational fog overnight. Winds are less favorable, but not out of the question that some fog or even stratus could develop early in the evening and be advected to the northwest as winds pick up. The HREF has around a 35 percent chance for visibility under a mile in spots, particularly in the escarpment in northeastern ND and portions of west central MN. On the other hand, the NBM and SREF probabilities are 20 percent and under. Even the more bullish HREF does not have huge probabilities, so given uncertainties will leave fog mention out for now and take another look this evening. The upper low over Manitoba will dig down into the Red River Valley tomorrow, however, very little precipitation is expected with the system. Model soundings are very dry aloft this evening and will get slightly better into tomorrow, but not enough to get precip reaching the ground. There is only a 5 percent chance for a hundredth of rain in our far southeastern counties as we go into Friday night. Will continue to keep Friday dry, but some clouds aren't out of the question. Upper ridging to southwesterly flow aloft sets up over the weekend. Southerly winds will continue to bring warmer air into the region, and highs could return to the 60s for Saturday and Sunday in some places. Monday, a lead shortwave comes into the Plains as a large trough starts to come out of the Rockies, with another shortwave arriving Tuesday. Fairly high chances of at least some rain, although probabilities for an inch or more are only around 20 percent in a few spots. A bit of a break for Wednesday, then ensembles diverge quite a bit on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN. There is a very low (less than 10%) chance for shallow fog development tonight into the early Friday morning period as surface high pressure retreats i MN. At the same time increasing southeast BL winds should help keep lower levels mixed limiting any coverage/potential (particularly in ND) and at this point all guidance is keeping VFR in place. Southeast winds eventually increase to 11-13kt Friday as surface gradient tightens in response to a mid level low passing through the region. Due to substantial dry air this mid level system isn't expect to produce measurable rain, but virga or a few sprinkles may accompany mid level clouds (8000-10000 KFT AGL). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...DJR