FXUS63 KFGF 210434 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1134 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light wintry mix Saturday morning across the north, area wide Saturday night. The chance for advisory level impacts is low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...Synopsis... Expansive ridging over the western half of CONUS leaves this FA riding the jet, with weak waves passing through. One wave came through last night, another weak one today, and yet another will tonight. Impacts from each disturbance have been limited. As ridging breaks down over the weekend, upper level flow becomes a mix of zonal to northwesterly. With a return to more zonal flow, temperatures will cool for Sunday. Riding the baroclinic zone through next work week, temperatures will constantly be up and down. The NBM shows how we are truly riding the line, with the 25th and 75th percentiles for high temperatures routinely being 10 or more degrees apart. Ensembles are hinting at a stronger system towards the middle of next week. However, the vast majority keep the best forcing in Canada, which would keep the bulk of precipitation to our north. Precipitation or not, a breezy period next Thursday, followed by some sort of cool down seems to be a reasonable expectation. ...Fog, Warmth and Wintry mix on Saturday... A weak wave passing through tonight will spark off light precipitation near the International Border. Soundings show a deep warm layer, which should keep most precipitation as rain. The one caveat is surface temperatures, which may briefly be near freezing around the Lake of the Woods. If temperatures are slightly below freezing, an extremely brief period of freezing rain would occur. However, this looks more and more unlikely with each passing model run. Further to the south and west, a still moist boundary layer and light winds up to 900 mb should promote at least pockets of fog tonight into Saturday morning. The most likely areas are along US Highway 2 north to the International Border, west of the forests of MN. Areas in southeastern ND and west central MN do not look to have as much moisture within the boundary layer, along with a touch higher winds overnight, which should limit fog development. Temperatures on Saturday will vary widely from south to north. 925 mb temperatures of 15C and 850 mb values around 13C gives surface high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across southeastern ND. Soundings show good mixing, up to 850 mb or even a little higher. Added together, southern areas are likely to see their first 70 degree readings of the year. Further north, temperatures will be warm, but remnant snowpack and a little CAA behind the overnight wave will promote highs generally in the 30s. Between the warmth in the south and cold in the north, a massive temperature gradient will exist between US Highway 2 and I-94. Along Highway 2, temperatures will be near 50. Along I-94, temperatures will be well into the mid to upper 60s. While warm for mid March, record high temperatures are still 5 to 10 degrees warmer then forecasted afternoon highs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Mid level clouds (8000-12000 FT AGL) are having an impact on limiting radiational conditions across eastern ND and northwest MN. Lighter fog (3-6sm) has been lingering over parts of the region (mainly northeast ND/far northwest MN) the chances for IFR visibilities have diminished and as low level wind shear develops early Saturday morning additional low level mixing may further limit potential for more than light fog. Some guidance still shows a window for IFR visibilities at KGFK and KDVL (09-15Z), however confidence at this point is much lower based on current trends. For the rest of Saturday: Winds shift to the west to northwest then north an increase behind a cold front. Behind the frontal passage widespread MVFR and eventually IFR stratus is likely to overspread eastern ND and northwest MN behind it which would then linger into Saturday night. The front also brings a low chance (20%) for a very light wintry mix which may include brief freezing rain (amounts would be very low), though virga is more likely at this time. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rafferty AVIATION...DJR